关键词:

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the growthoriented optimal structure and relative scale of public human capital investment in an aging society by establishing an extended overlappinggeneration model which endogenizes population aging. The theoretical analyses indicate that there are inverse Ucurve relationships between the relative scale and structure of public human capital investment and economic growth. The optimal scale and structure of public human capital investment are reflected by the correlation of aging population and economic growth. Specifically, if aging has positive (negative) effects on economic growth, the growthoriented policy is to increase (decrease) public human capital investment to GDP ratio and public health investment to public human capital investment ratio. The empirical studies based on the panel data of Chinese provinces suggest that population aging has negative effects on economic growth. The scale of the public human capital investment and the proportion of public human health investment become so large, lying in the decline stage of inverse Ucurve, that they depress the economic growth through crowdedout effects. The policy implications of this paper are as follows: the government should increase the public education investment to public human capital investment ratio and encourage more efficient social private capital to invest in human capital accumulation so as to decrease the relative scale of public human capital investment; the scale of public physical investment should be reinforced at present.

Key words: population aging , public human capital investment , optimal scale and structure , economic growth , inverse Urelationship