经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (7): 88-100.

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全球FTA数字贸易规则网络结构及其影响因素

  

  1. 上海社会科学院
  • 出版日期:2023-07-16 发布日期:2023-08-11
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到了国家社会科学基金一般项目“‘一带一路’FTA网络中的国家地位测度及贸易效应研究”(18BJL095)、“全球数字贸易规则新趋势及中国的政策选择研究”(17BFX148)的资助。

THE STRUCTURE AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE GLOBAL FTA DIGITAL TRADE RULES NETWORK

  1. Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences
  • Online:2023-07-16 Published:2023-08-11

摘要: 本文在考虑协定深度的基础上,分析了全球FTA数字贸易规则网络的结构特征,并采用时态指数随机图模型(TERGM)方法对网络形成的影响因素进行实证分析。结果发现:第一,全球FTA数字贸易规则网络的无权和有权网络密度总体呈增长趋势,反映了网络中各国的参与广度和深度均有所提升,欧盟、美国、新加坡处于FTA数字贸易规则网络的中心地位;第二,欧盟所在子群与其他子群间形成明显的核心-边缘结构,美国所在子群与中国及部分东盟国家所在子群之间联系紧密,表明美式规则在亚太地区的强大影响力;第三,基于TERGM的实证分析,证实了网络传递性在推动全球FTA数字贸易规则网络结构形成中的作用,这为中国积极应对美式和欧式FTA规则传播,加快形成中国FTA数字贸易规则范本并积极在全球范围内推广提供了政策依据。


关键词: FTA数字贸易规则网络, 协定深度, 网络传递性, 时态指数随机图模型 

Abstract: This paper analyzes the structural characteristics of the global FTA digital trade rules network on the basis of considering the depth of the agreements,and uses the Temporal Exponential Random Graph Model(TERGM)method to conduct an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of network formation The result shows that: First,there is an overall growing tendency in the density of unweighted and weighted global FTA digital trade network,reflecting the increase in the breadth and depth of participation of countries in the network The European Union,the United States,and Singapore are at the center of the FTA digital trade rules network Second,a clear coreedge structure is formed between the subgroup where the EU is located and other subgroups The subgroup where the United States is located is closely related to the subgroup where China and some ASEAN countries are located,indicating the strong influence of American rules in the AsiaPacific region Third,the empirical analysis based on TERGM confirms the role of network transitivity in promoting the formation of global FTA digital trade rules network structure This provides a policy basis for China to positively respond to the spread of American and European FTA rules,accelerate the formation of a model of Chinese FTA digital trade rules and actively promote it globally 


Key words: FTA digital trade rules network, agreement depth, network transitivity, temporal exponential random graph model