关键词: 利率市场化, 财政支出, 货币供应量

Abstract: Based on the perspective of interest rate liberalization, this paper uses MSAR (Markov regimeswitching autoregressive model) to study the nonlinear changes of interest rate determination channels in China since the interest rate liberalization began (19962017). This paper uses the econometric model to identify two regimes of interest rate determination channels in China: “fiscal dominant” (19962005) and “monetary dominant” (20062017) regimes. The switching time of China's interest rate determination channels coincides with the critical timing of interest rate liberalization reform process, showing that China's interest rate liberalization reform has made remarkable achievement, and the interest rate determination has changed from fiscal dominant to monetary dominant regime, laying a good foundation for further interest rate liberalization.

Key words:  , interest rate liberalization, fiscal expenditure, money supply