关键词: 货物运输与经济增长 , 耦合 , 解耦 , 货运经济弹性 , SVAR

Abstract: In the perspective of coupling and decoupling, this paper uses the GDP elasticity of freight volume to assess the link between China s freight transport and economic growth and finds that their link in 19882016 has undergone an evolution from Decoupling (19881998), to Tending to Coupling (19992003), to Coupling (20042013), then to Decoupling Sign (20142016)In order to explore the mechanism of the link, this paper summarizes the influencing factors from the supply and demand framework of freight transport and economy and then constructs the SVAR model to test the theoryThe empirical analysis indicates that the increasing share of the industry in the economic production and the improvement of transportation infrastructure have a significant positive effect on the GDP elasticity of freight volumeWith the continuous largescale construction of Chinas transportation industry, the impact of transportation infrastructure factors on the GDP elasticity of freight volume has been weakened, but the impact of evolution of industrial structure on the GDP elasticity of freight volume has become increasingly prominentThis paper argues that Chinas transportation system should support and lead the highquality development of the economy and its development model has reached an important node from focusing on scale and speed to focusing on quality and efficiency

Key words: freight volume and economic growth , coupling , decoupling , GDP elasticity of freight volume , SVAR