经济理论与经济管理

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基于城乡视角的居民能源消费影响因素研究

魏楚,沈子玥#br#   

  1. 中国人民大学应用经济学院
  • 出版日期:2019-12-16 发布日期:2019-12-18
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家自科基金项目“居民能源需求管理”（71622014）、“城镇化与居民能源需求”（41771564）、教育部人文社科基金项目“城镇化对家庭能源消费的影响”（16YJA790049）的资助。

DETERMINANTS OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION: A URBANRURAL COMPARISON

WEI Chu,SHEN Ziyue   

  1. School of Applied Economics, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2019-12-16 Published:2019-12-18

PDF (PC)

摘要：

2002—2016年，伴随着291亿农村人口的城镇化，中国居民能源消费量增长了190%。在这一背景下，准确识别城乡居民能源消费模式差异及影响因素显得至关重要。本文基于城乡视角，重新界定居民能源消费，涵盖了建筑用能和交通用能两部分；同时在模型中创新性地引入了财富效应和强度效应，结合结构效应、城镇化效应和人口效应进行定量研究。利用对数平均迪氏分解法，基于我国2002—2012年城镇、农村居民数据，本文考察了不同驱动因素对城镇和农村能源消费的异质性影响。结果表明，建筑能耗强度和住房面积的增长是驱动居民能源消费增长的主要因素，机动车数量的增加也对城镇居民能源消费有明显的正向作用。由于较高的增长率，农村建筑能耗强度和人均住房面积增加对能耗增量的贡献已经逐渐超过城市。此外，分解结果表明，城镇化对居民能源消费的正向效应在逐年递减。这为“城镇化导致居民能源消费增加”提供了间接反证。

关键词: 城乡视角 , 居民能源消费 , 影响因素 , LMDI分解

Abstract:

From 2002 to 2016, with more than 291 million rural population being transformed as urban residence, the residential energy consumption increase 190% during this period. Accurately identifying and examining the major driving forces behind this quick growth of energy demand is essential to understand the evolution of energy demand pattern. Different from existing literature, the present study first clarifies the concept of residential energy consumption by covering both building and transportation energy consumption. More importantly, it introduces two new variables in the decomposition model, namely the wealth effect which represents the change of durable goods and the intensity effect which describes the energy intensity of durable goods. The Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) approach is applied with the national data during 2002 to 2012. Our results show that the wealth effect and energy intensity effect are major engines to drive the residential energy growth. Moreover, our findings offer evidence against the general argument that “urbanization will increase residential consumption”.

Key words:  urbanrural comparison , residential energy consumption , determinants , Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index

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