关键词: 明斯基周期 , 金融不稳定 , 投资 , 面板VAR

Abstract: It has become a hot spot in current economic concern whether China is approaching “Minsky moment”Based on the core theory of Minsky cycles “financial instability hypothesis”，by the construction of investmentliabilities system model，using the panel VAR model from the company level，this paper empirically studies whether there exists Minsky cycle in Chinas economyThe results show that，leverage is the inverse business cyclical，and debt has the most significantly negative effect on investment in the period of economic expansion，which are both conflict with the core view of Minskys financial instability hypothesis，which is rooted in western liberal financial markets and is not applicable in ChinaBut the current stage of Chinese market has the financial trails effectThe importance of deleveraging should be much focused on in the current macroeconomic policies

Key words: Minsky cycles , financial instability hypothesis , investment , panel VAR