关键词: 文化贸易 , 进口引致出口 , 集约边际 , 扩展边际

Abstract: The socalled “import inducing export” mechanism widely exists in traditional trade of goods. Considering the fact Chinese cultural trade has been in deficit for a long time, it is worth further investigation whether this mechanism exists in culture trade. Using HS 6bit code data of Chinese cultural trade during 1996—2013 and constructing dual margin indexes of cultural trade, this paper empirically finds that import has no significantly positive effect on the dual margins of export in cultural products. While import has certain insignificantly positive effect on exports expansion margin, it causes some negative impacts on exports intensive margin. This paper also finds that export price has a significant effect on promoting exports intensive margin, but it has a negative inhibition effect on exports expansion margin, implying the existence of low quality bidding mode in Chinese cultural trade. Various robust checks also verify the above conclusions. Therefore, “import inducing export” mechanism does not exist in cultural trade. How to strengthen the missing mechanism and eliminate the inhibitory effect of current export mode on highend export capacity is a key to rapid and sustained development of Chinas cultural trade.

Key words: cultural trade , import inducing effect , intensive margin , extensive margin