关键词: 隐含担保 , 风险传导强度

Abstract: The credit priority of banking sector to the real estate industry leads to the accumulation of bank credit in the real estate industry, thus the real estate price fluctuations have increasing impact on the financial systemic risk. Based on the twosector contingent balance sheet framework of the banking sector and the real estate sector, this paper studies the risk transmission mechanism of the real estate sector to the banking sector from the aspects of assets and liabilities, and constructs the implicit guarantee ratio of the bank to the real estate sector as an indicator which measures the intensity of risk transmission. TVPVAR model is applied to depict the dynamic evolution path of relationships between housing price fluctuation and the systemic risk of the real estate sector and banking sector from 2002 to 2016.The results show that the real estate risk in China mainly affects the intensity of risk transmission from the debt transmission path through the banks credit behavior, and the banks credit behavior is the main factor influencing the intensity of risk transmission. There are obvious structural mutations in the impact of real estate sector risk on the intensity of risk transmission, and there are nonlinear acceleration characteristics of systemic risk deterioration in the banking sector. We propose the suggestions of stabilizing house prices, broadening the financing methods for real estate, reducing the financial dependence local government on land.

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