关键词: 城乡经济 , 福利成本 , 暂时性冲击 , 持久性冲击

Abstract: The accurate measurement of welfare cost of economic fluctuations not only critiques different theories about the root of economic fluctuation, but also leads government and central bank to choose appropriate economic policies. Considering the standard model proposed by Lucas only assumes the impact of transitory shocks on welfare cost and ignores the impact of permanent shocks on welfare cost, this paper applies the Beveridge and Nelson method to decompose the consumption series and measures the welfare cost which caused by transitory shocks and permanent shocks. This paper further uses urbanrural consumption data to estimate the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in different provinces. This paper concludes that the permanent shocks cause more urbanrural welfare cost than the transitory shocks, hence avoiding the adverse supply factors which cause permanent shocks, it will be valid to reduce the urbanrural welfare loss and enhance urbanrural welfare level, which is consistent with supplyside structural reform.

Key words: urbanrural economy , welfare cost , transitory shock , permanent shock