经济理论与经济管理

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新常态迈向新阶段的中国宏观经济*——2017—2018年中国宏观经济分析与预测

中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测课题组   

  1. 中国人民大学
  • 出版日期:2018-02-16 发布日期:2018-02-06
  • 基金资助:
    本文为“中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心”子项目“认识适应和引领经济新常态研究”阶段性研究成果。本文得到国家社会科学基金青年项目“延迟退休对我国劳动力市场的影响及其作用机制研究”(16CJL049)的资助。

NEW NORMAL TOWARDS NEW STAGE ——Chinas Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2017—2018

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast#br#   

  1. Renmin University of China
  • Online:2018-02-16 Published:2018-02-06

摘要: 在世界经济同步复苏、稳增长政策持续发力、供给侧结构性改革全面推进、新经济持续向好、市场预期不断改善等因素的作用下,2017年中国宏观经济增速在触底企稳的基础上出现反弹,宏观景气、微观绩效、结构调整以及新动能培育都出现持续改善的局面,整体经济呈现“稳中求进,进中向好”的超预期复苏的态势,中国宏观经济调整取得阶段性胜利。但是,2017年中国经济企稳总体上是政策性、恢复性的,市场力量和趋势性力量还没有企稳,中国宏观经济还没有步入到持续反弹的新周期轨道之中。当前中国经济以下三大特征将是理解中国宏观经济的要点:一是经济企稳但难以快速反弹;二是风险有所缓和但警报并没有解除;三是结构虽有所优化但面临政策退出的冲击。

关键词: 新常态 , 新阶段 , 中国宏观经济

Abstract: Due to the positive effects of global recovery, stimulus policies, supplyside structural reform, rising of new economy and improvements in market expectation, Chinas macro economy managed to achieve bettering in economic performances both at macro and micro level, presenting an upward trend of “steady progress towards good”. However, it must be clear that the rebound observed in 2017 was mainly driven by stimulus policies and recovery forces, while not solid in market and trend power, indicating that China is still far away from the track of “new cycle”. There are three major characteristics for understanding Chinas current macroeconomics as follows: First, economy has steadied but hard to rebound quickly. Second, risks have been alleviated but far from disappearing. Third, economic structure has improved but still facing the challenge of policy exits.

Key words: new normal , new stage , Chinas macroeconomics