经济理论与经济管理

• 增长与发展 • 上一篇    

能源投入产出模型的选择:混合型还是价值型*

张红霞#br#   

  1. 中国人民大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2018-10-16 发布日期:2018-10-18

CHOOSING ENERGY INPUTOUTPUT MODELS: HYBRID TYPE OR MONETARY TYPE

ZHANG Hongxia#br#   

  1. School of Economics, Renmin University of China
  • Online:2018-10-16 Published:2018-10-18

摘要:

将投入产出技术用于能源问题的分析时,当前文献中有两类模型:混合型能源投入产出模型和价值型能源投入产出模型,其中价值型模型应用更为广泛。本文从能源平衡方程入手,对这两类模型的本质特点和差异进行了辨析,通过严格证明,得到如下结论:第一,在技术系数矩阵稳定的条件下,出现新的最终需求时,混合型能源投入产出模型仍然保证能源平衡方程的成立,具备一致性。第二,在技术系数矩阵和能源价格矩阵稳定的条件下,出现新的最终需求时,价值型能源投入产出模型无法保证能源平衡方程的成立。虽然价值型能源投入产出模型在初始构建过程中使用了能源平衡方程,但本质上是以价值单位的投入产出方程为根本出发点的,并没有考虑能源平衡方程在新的最终需求发生时是否仍然成立的问题,没有考虑能源使用的一致性。因此,一般情况下混合型能源投入产出模
型更为合理。第三,在某些特殊情况下这两类模型等价:(1)当最终需求结构保持不变,而只有最终需求总量发生变化时;(2)当能源在各使用部门之间的价格完全相同时。这些结论为实际应用中如何选择恰当的能源投入产出模型提供了依据。

关键词: 能源 , 投入产出模型 , 能源平衡方程

Abstract:

In literature, there are two ways to apply inputoutput technique to analyzing problems related to energies, the hybrid type energy inputoutput model and the
monetary type energy inputoutput model. In this paper, the features and differences of two types of energy inputoutput models are studied and proved from the viewpoint of energy balance equations. The main conclusions are as follows. Firstly, when the matrix of technology coefficients is stable, the hybrid type energy inputoutput model still satisfies the energy balance equations, and keeps consistency under the impact of new final demands. Secondly, for the monetary type energy inputoutput model, if the matrix of technology coefficients and the matrix of energy prices keep stable, the monetary inputoutput equations are satisfied, and the energy consumptions are the results of adjusting monetary inputoutput equations by the matrix of energy prices, when there is a vector of new final demands. It means that although the energy balance equations are used in the process of constructing a monetary type energy inputoutput model, its fundamental starting point is not the energy balance equations, but the monetary inputoutput equations. Therefore, a monetary type energy inputoutput model does not take energy balance equations into consideration, and does not consider whether the energy balance equations are
still satisfied when a vector of new final demands comes out and whether the energy consumptions are consistent. In this sense, a hybrid unit energy inputoutput model is more reasonable than a monetary type energy inputoutput model. Thirdly, it is proved that in some special cases, the monetary type energy inputoutput model is equivalent to the hybrid unit energy inputoutput model. The arguments provide guidelines for choosing a proper model when using energy inputoutput technique.

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