经济理论与经济管理

• 公共经济 • 上一篇    下一篇

我国省际政府支出乘数有差异性吗*

林桐,王文甫   

  1. 西南财经大学统计学院
  • 出版日期:2017-05-16 发布日期:2017-05-17
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到2015年教育部规划项目“地方政府视角下经济结构失衡的理论与经验研究”(15YJC790029)和2015年度中央高校基本科研业务专项资金“面板数据SVAR、SVARMA的计量分析方法及应用”(JBK1507099)的资助。

DOES THE PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE MULTIPLIER EXIST DIFFERENCE IN CHINA

LIN Tong,WANG Wen-fu   

  1. Southwestern University of Finance and Economics
  • Online:2017-05-16 Published:2017-05-17

摘要: 考虑到我国省与省之间政府支出政策效应的异质性及相依性,本文先在动态异质面板结构向量自回归(PSVAR)模型中,将共同相关效应(CCE)及主成分分析(PC)两种处理截面相关的方法分别引入其中,进行了小样本对比分析。本文研究发现,CCE拟合效果更好。然后,本文基于CCE思想估计的动态异质且截面相关的PSVAR模型对我国省际政府支出乘数的差异性进行了探讨,实证结果表明:我国各省区市短期、长期政府支出乘数均存在显著差异,而且差异性与东、中、西三大经济区域分布并不一致;贸易开放度越大、政府债务率越低、经济发展水平越高、收入分配差距越小的省区市政府支出乘数越大。

关键词:

Abstract: In this paper,considering the heterogeneity and dependence of provincial government expenditure multiplier exist difference in China,two methods,which are used to deal the crosssectional dependence,the common correlation effect (CCE) and principal component (PC) are introduced into the dynamic heterogeneity panel structural vector autoregression (PSVAR) modelThe results of small sample comparative analysis show that the effect of CCE is betterBased on the PSVAR model with dynamic heterogeneity and crosssectional dependence,which estimated by the idea of CCE,this paper discusses the difference of provincial government expenditure multiplier of our countryThe results of event study show that both the all province government expenditure multiplier of short and long term exist difference,and the difference is not consistent with area distribution of the East,Middle and WestIn addition,we also find the reason of difference,which is that the bigger trade openness,the lower government debt ratio,the higher economic development level and the smaller distant of income distribution should result a bigger government expenditure multiplier

Key words: government expenditure multiplier , provincial panel , dynamic heterogeneity , crosssectional dependence , PSVAR model