关键词: 筑底 , 债务风险 , 广义政府债务 , 风险缓释

Abstract: In 2016, the macroeconomy exhibits the trend of shortterm bottom stabilization and converging bubbles As the potential growth level shifting downward, combined with cyclical, structural, and tendency factors, together they are still causing tremendous downward pressure, and will lead to continuous bottomformation in the upcoming year of 2017 However, the depth and length of bottomformation are related to world economy recovery, growth level of Chinas economy, cultivation of new industries and economy drivers, adjustment of real estate cycles, fluctuations of politicaleconomy cycles, solutions to potential economic risks and many other factors Meanwhile, domestic debt scale has been skyrocketing, driven by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern; this highlights the structural debt risks, as generalized government debt level exceeding the international warning line The fundamental problems of Chinas economy are mostly correlated with debt risks, such as the converging asset bubbles, are actually the currencies allocated by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern, now circulating in the stock, bond, and real estate market; while debt risks may very well be the trigger Chinas economic crisis Judging from current situations, China is capable of preventing crisis, with sufficient attention on factors that may be the causes On one hand, it is critical to establish a correct understanding and coping mechanism of economic crisis; on the other hand, to establish a risk mitigation mechanism before debt risks evolve to crises.

Key words: bottom stabilization , bottomformation , debt risks , generalized government debt