关键词: 政府规模 , 福利效应 , HansenTM , 政策矫正

Abstract:

 Unlike existing studies focus on factors and economic efficiency of government expansion, this paper studies the welfare effect of governments size. There are two important findings: (1) By using provincial panel data in 2000—2012 and the Hansens threshold model, we find the mutual effect of Chinas fiscal decentralization, transfer payments, economic growth with governments size on social welfare are nonlinear, which respectively exhibit remarkable “Ntype”, “inverted U” and “Ntype” nonlinear mechanism. (2) These mechanisms and threshold effect of social welfare have regional differences. This paper puts forward useful corrective policy recommendations in the context of supplyside structural reforms, to prevent social welfare of expansion of governments size from “initial positive effect” to “ultimate negative effect”.

Key words: government size , welfare effects , HansenTM , policy rectify