关键词: 供给侧结构性改革 , 探底企稳 , 深层次问题

Abstract:

In first half year of 2016, Chinas economy intends to become stable after a period of declining, which indicates the economy is not going to “hard landing” There are series of new phenomenon indicate that the economy still facing four major problems: Firstly, the supplyside structural reform has not found an effective path to work effectively Secondly, the growthfriendly policies do not solve the underlying problems of macro economy Thirdly, the negative reinforcement mechanism of shortterm output and midterm potential output, “consumptioninvestment” dilemma caused by exceedingly national income distribution, and the real economy trends to switch to fictitious economy due to the relative revenue of the real economy and the fictitious economy is declining These three challenges have become the major obstacles of Chinas economy growthForth, the shortterm economy stability is built on the recovery of loose policies and propertyvalue bubble, which is not a sustainable recovery In the second half year of 2016, Chinas economy will unlikely to maintain stable The second bottom of “asymmetry W adjustment” will be reached on the end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, and there will be intense turbulence The model predicts GDP growth rate of 2016 will be 66%, while CPI will be 23% 2016—2017 is the critical period of Chinas supplyside structural reform “Great reform”, “more proactive fiscal policy”, “moderately loose monetary policy” and “more intrusive regulation” must have viable plans, and reform policies must make new adjustments.

Key words: supplyside structural reform , decline steadily , underlying problems