关键词: 预期 , 财政政策 , 宏观经济效应

Abstract:

Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper studies the macro economy effects and internal propagation mechanisms under the anticipated and unanticipated fiscal policies using Chinas quarterly macroeconomic data between 1999 and 2014This study found as follows: Firstly, macro economy effects can explain 3634% of the output volatility, 1424% of the employment volatility and 618% of the price volatilitySecondly, different from the unanticipated fiscal policy affecting the economic equilibrium system directly, the anticipated fiscal policy changes economic equilibrium system mainly through affecting the publics beliefThirdly, the fiscal policy shocks macroeconomic effects not only depend on the type of public policies, but also need to consider the publics anticipationTherefore, the government should not only select rationally the fiscal policy based on the macroeconomic target, but also reasonably guide the publics anticipation, strengthen the fiscal policys pertinence and effectiveness.

Key words: anticipation , fiscal policy , macroeconomic effect