经济理论与经济管理

• 经济热点 •    下一篇

新常态下我国宏观经济政策框架的重构*

中国人民大学宏观经济分析与预测课题组   

  1. 中国人民大学
  • 出版日期:2016-04-16 发布日期:2016-04-22
  • 基金资助:

    本文为“中国特色社会主义经济建设协同创新中心”子项目“认识适应和引领经济新常态研究”阶段性研究成果。

RECONSTRUCTING MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORKS FOR THE NEW NORMAL CHINESE ECONOMY

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Research Group   

  1. Renmin University of China
  • Online:2016-04-16 Published:2016-04-22

摘要:

我国宏观经济政策“微刺激”效果下降,而“强刺激”带来了严重后遗症,导致这种状况的关键原因是政策框架在整体上出了问题。重构我国宏观政策框架的战略定位应该包括以下内容:(1)短期应对不断加剧的宏观经济和金融风险;(2)中期应对结构调整的负面冲击;(3)长期构建高效的、可持续的和动态一致的宏观调控模式。重构政策框架的原则性要求包括:(1)宏观经济及金融的稳定性与国际收支平衡应该成为显性目标;(2)财政政策主要指向结构调整期的短期阵痛,货币政策指向宏观经济及金融稳定性;(3)宏观政策应该遵循市场化、可预期的操作模式。在具体策略上可以选择国债市场作为突破口,通过改变国债发行规模和方式,推动国债市场的大发展和大开放,以此拓展整个金融市场的深度和开放程度。

关键词: 经济新常态 , 宏观经济政策框架 , 国际收支;特别提款权

Abstract:

Faced with the policy dilemma between the declining effect of soft stimulus and the bad side effect of strong stimulus, Chinese policymakers have to think how to reconstruct macroeconomic policy frameworksThe strategic objectives of reconstruction include: (1) in a short time, dealing with the emerging risk of macroeconomy and finance; (2) in the medium term, dealing with bad sideeffects of economic restructuring and change of the pattern of economic growth; (3) in the long term, constructing efficient, sustainable, and dynamic consistent macroeconomic policy frameworksFundamentals of reconstruction include: (1) the objectives of macroeconomic and financial stability and external balance should be included in policy frameworks; (2) fiscal policy directs to the sideeffect of economic restructuring, while monetary policy directs to macroeconomic and financial stability; (3) macroeconomic policies should be implemented in marketoriented and predictable modeA feasible breakthrough could be made in government bond markets.

Key words: the new normal economy , macroeconomic policy frameworks , balance of payments , SDR