关键词: 无泡沫租售比 , 泡沫租售比 , 住房泡沫指数

Abstract:

From the perspectives of consumption demand and investment demand, this paper develops a theoretical model to measure housing bubble by equilibrium rent to price ratio with bubble and without bubble. Using the housing market databases of Chinas 35 large and mediumsize cities over 1996—2013, this paper finds 16 cities (e.g. Beijing, Shanghai) exist distinct housing bubble. The expectation of housing price more easily gives rise to housing bubble in Chinas eastern and firsttier cities than the middle and western and second and thirdtier cities. Interest rate policy has a more valid effect in curbing housing bubble for the western and middle or second and thirdtier cities than the eastern or firsttier cities. The overbuilding causes housing bubble. Mortgage lending and development cost fuel the housing bubble formation. The land revenue maximization facilitates housing bubble, while the stock market yields prevent housing bubble formation.

Key words: rent to price ratio with bubble , rent to price ratio without bubble , housing bubble index