关键词: 探底 , 宏观经济政策 , 再定位

Abstract:

The Chinese economy will continue to be moderating in 2016. In the shadow of the global business cycle, Chinas real estate cycle, Chinas debt cycle, Chinas inventory cycle, Chinas new industrial breeding cycle, China s political cycle, and with macroeconomic policy reorientation,Chinese economy will go through severe headwinds in 2016. The second bottom of the current economic cycle will begin to appear in the 3—4 quarter in 2016, and a steady rebound is expected to show up in late 2017, returning to the rapid and steady growth track. But all the predicting performances depend on the evolvement of the mentioned cycles above, which determines the bottom of the current downturn, the depth of the bottom and the length of duration. Therefore, high attention must be paid to the following issues: the reshape of the incentive system, the recovery of the real estate market, the evolvement of the world economy, and the reorientation of macroeconomic policy. At the same time, a lot of new industries, new formats and new impetus appeared in Chinese economy, making it a mixture of prosperity in downturn, new climate in weakness and new momentum in the old failing power. In the process of adjustment deepening, the basis of next round rapid growth is building.

Key words: economic dip , macroeconomic policy , policy reorientation