关键词: 宏观经济波动, 结构调整, 经济周期平稳化

Abstract: Using the method of variance decompositions,this paper assessed the role of compositional shifts on macroeconomic stabilization.Our decomposition of output growth volatility indicated as follows:(1) in calculating GDP both by expenditures and by producer,the main effect on macroeconomic stabilization is not compositional effect but volatility effect;(2) the incorrect direction of compositional shifts led to a limited effect on macroeconomic stabilization in China since 1986;(3) The compositional shifts in the second industry contributed to macroeconomic stabilization significantly;(4) some policies of compositional shifts,such as increasing the sector shares of the consumption and the third industry,reducing the volatility of manufacture sector,would lead to macroeconomic stabilization.

Key words: macroeconomic fluctuations, compositional shifts, macroeconomic stabilization