关键词: 民工荒, 刘易斯拐点, 剩余劳动力, 二元经济, 工资差距

Abstract: This paper analyses the long-term issue of migrant labor scarcity in China.After reviewing the Lewis model and examining the evidence from the labor market,the paper argues that migrant labor scarcity is a temporary phenomenon resulted from the fluctuation of the relative real income,uprising prices of farm products,increasing urban living cost and unstable exportation of industrial products.The reassessment also indicates that the size of migrant labor poor is about a hundred million.These may imply the Lewisian turning point has not arrived yet and the transition of dual economy is already a long-period process in China.

Key words: migrant labor shortage, Lewisian turning point, labor surplus, dual economy, wage gap