关键词: 贸易顺差, 贸易品, 非贸易品, 外需的可替代性

Abstract: This paper investigates the root of China's trade surplus and its substitutability under the equilibrium of open macroeconomy.The main difference from previous analyses is that the structure of tradable and non-tradable goods is introduced into the equilibrium.The results include:(1) the root of China's trade surplus is that the ratio of non-tradable to tradable in domestic demand is larger than the ratio in domestic production;(2) the relative deficiency of non-tradable goods results in forced saving of household,which restricts the growth of domestic consumption;(3) given the structure of domestic demand and production,foreign demand cannot substitute domestic investment;(4) to rebalance the constitution of China's aggregate demand,especially to increase the ratio of domestic consumption,the policy of income distribution must be complemented by the policy of structure adjusting.

Key words: trade surplus, tradable goods, non-tradable goods, substitutability of foreign demand