经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2006, Vol. ›› Issue (4): 5-12.

• 经济热点 •    下一篇

新兴市场国家(地区)本币升值影响因素的国际经验比较

中国人民大学财政金融学院人民币升值研究课题组   

  1. 中国人民大学, 北京, 100872
  • 收稿日期:2006-03-16 出版日期:2006-04-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISON: FACTORS ON DOMESTIC CURRENCY APPRECIATION IN NEWLY ESTABLIED MARKET COUNTRIES

Research Group of RMB Appreciation, School of Finance, Renmin University of China   

  1. Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2006-03-16 Online:2006-04-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要: 通过对经历或正在面临本币升值压力的主要新兴市场国家(地区)影响本币升值的因素进行国际经验比较分析,我们可以发现,在众多的影响因素中,贸易收支顺差、金融账户顺差和GDP增长率成为引发上述国家(地区)本币升值的主要因素。基于样本国家(地区)面板资料的实证研究为国际经验比较分析提供了证据。以上结论显然对于同样作为新兴市场国家,同时面临人民币升值压力的我国具有重要的借鉴意义。在我国应对人民币升值的政策中,应该优先考虑可能导致上述因素积极变化的政策的制定和实施。

关键词: 本币升值, 影响因素分析, 新兴市场国家, 国际经验比较

Abstract: Uhis paper investigates the fundamental factors driving the local currency revaluation in the major emerging economies.We find that among all the factors,trade account surplus,financial account surplus,and rapid GDP growth are the major underlying ones.The empirical study based on panel data of sample economies supports our finding.The propositions would have important policy implications for China as an emerging economy facing pressure of Renminbi revaluation: Chinese government should consider the above factors firstly and carefully when making macroeconomic policies against Renminbi revaluation.

Key words: local currency revaluation, emerging market economies, international comparison

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