中国股票市场估值研究--局部投资价值凸现与市场整体性结构调整并存

经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2005, Vol. ›› Issue (10): 27-32.

中国股票市场估值研究--局部投资价值凸现与市场整体性结构调整并存

周游

中国人民大学财政金融学院, 北京, 100872

收稿日期:2005-09-12 出版日期:2005-10-16 发布日期:2012-03-01

STUDY ON EVALUATION IN CHINA’S STOCK MARKET--Coexistence of Specific Investment Chance and Overall Structural Rectification

ZHOU You

School of Finance, Renmin University, Beijing 100872, China

Received:2005-09-12 Online:2005-10-16 Published:2012-03-01

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在当前价格下,样本股票未来带给国内投资者的回报率可能不低于成熟市场,如果国内投资者对样本股票所要求的股权风险溢价能与境外投资者对成熟市场所要求的水平相当,那么样本股票无疑已凸现投资价值;如果国内投资者对样本股票所要求的股权风险溢价与境外投资者对中国香港等新兴市场所要求的水平看齐,那么样本股票就可能存在高估的问题;但是如果考虑到A股含权的因素,即使是与中国香港市场比较,样本股票可能已具备较高的投资价值。

关键词: 估值, 股权风险溢价, 抑价率, 异常收益率

Abstract: Under the current price level,possible return from index constituent stocks is no longer lower than that of a mature market.If risk premiums asked by domestic investors are the same with that of overseas investors in a mature market,then index constituent stocks are just now displaying their value for investment.However,if they compare with investors in an emerging market such as Hong Kong,they may look at the constituents as"overvalued".In a view to"consideration"of the A shares,you may also conclude that the constituent stocks now deserve investing.

Key words: evaluation, risk premium, premium ratio, abnormal yield

中图分类号:

F830.91

周游. 中国股票市场估值研究--局部投资价值凸现与市场整体性结构调整并存[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2005, (10): 27-32.

ZHOU You. STUDY ON EVALUATION IN CHINA’S STOCK MARKET--Coexistence of Specific Investment Chance and Overall Structural Rectification[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2005, (10): 27-32.