Table of Content

16 June 2016, Volume 36 Issue 6

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APPROACH TO OPTIMIZATION OF CURRENT LOCAL GOVERNMENT EXISTING OBLIGATIONS REPLACEMENT AND RELEVANT SUGGESTIONS

CAO Wen-lian1,DONG Yun-jia2

2016, 36(6):  5-12. 

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This paper analyses the background and pros & cons of local government existing obligations replacement in China, and believes that current replacement is significant in terms of alleviating local government debt, resisting and resolving financial risksHowever, the replacement still can be optimized in areas including offering pricing mechanism, overall reform effects, etcIn order to deal with the shortfalls of current replacement, this paper suggests learning from two replacements of national economic debt by issuing special national bonds in China since 1998, to realize the third replacement of national economic debt by issuing special bonds and securitization of foreign exchangeMeanwhile, this paper suggests promoting relevant systematic and institutional reforms as soon as possible, speeding up the governance of root causes for local government obligationThis paper believes that, at present, inflation in China remains mild, with overall sufficient foreign exchange, and RMB exchange rate enters into a twoway fluctuation channel, which have provided opportunities for the third replacement of national economic debt with the core of securitization of foreign exchange.

ANTICIPATED AND UNANTICIPATED FISCAL POLICY SHOCK AND ITS MACRO ECONOMIC EFFECT

DING Zhi-fan

2016, 36(6):  13-31. 

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Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper studies the macro economy effects and internal propagation mechanisms under the anticipated and unanticipated fiscal policies using Chinas quarterly macroeconomic data between 1999 and 2014This study found as follows: Firstly, macro economy effects can explain 3634% of the output volatility, 1424% of the employment volatility and 618% of the price volatilitySecondly, different from the unanticipated fiscal policy affecting the economic equilibrium system directly, the anticipated fiscal policy changes economic equilibrium system mainly through affecting the publics beliefThirdly, the fiscal policy shocks macroeconomic effects not only depend on the type of public policies, but also need to consider the publics anticipationTherefore, the government should not only select rationally the fiscal policy based on the macroeconomic target, but also reasonably guide the publics anticipation, strengthen the fiscal policys pertinence and effectiveness.

STRUCTURAL BURDEN: THE PROPORTION OF THE DISTRIBUTION SECTOR AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

CHENG Jin-wen,LIU Xiang-dong

2016, 36(6):  32-44. 

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 The proportion of the distribution sector, a fundamental and guiding industry of the national economy, declines firstly and then increases gradually, presenting a Ushape trendThis paper explores the impact of its variation on regional total factor productivity (TFP) and on regional economic growth, by using augmented Solow model and Chinese provincial panel dataResults show that, firstly, there is a significant negative relationship between the proportion of the distribution sector and regional aggregate productivitySecondly, the growth rate of real per capita output has a negative relationship with current proportion of distribution sector, while has a positive relationship with previous proportionThe net effect of the proportion on economic growth not only depended on the negative relationship between the proportion and regional TFP, but also depended on the convergence of regional economic growthAccording to simulation experiment, the rise of the proportion lowers the growth rate of real per capita output by 136 percentage pointsFinally, distribution efficiency mediates the effects of the proportion on regional aggregate TFP and economic growthTherefore, local government can lighten “structural burden” by improving regional distribution efficiency.

HIGHER EDUCATION EXPANSION, ABILITY HETEROGENEITY AND RETURN TO HIGHER EDUCATION——Evidences from CGSS

MA Bian-jing1,CAI Hai-jing1,YAO Xian-guo2

2016, 36(6):  45-57. 

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Using data from CGSS, this paper quantitatively examines the heterogeneous treatment effect of higher education expansion (HEE) on return to higher education between treated groupsFirst, under conceptual framework of the counterfactual and local average treatment effect, we identify different treatment groups whose educational achievement was affected by HEE: nevertakers， compliers and alwaystakersThe results show that: for compilers, its revenue grew by about 40%; for alwaystakers, the advantages of revenue was not significantly weakened; enrollment policy effects of heterogeneity university education significantly different rates of return between men and women in the sampleIt is necessary to equalize the quality of education, expand student loans benefit from measures to protect vulnerable groups, such as surface rights of higher education.

THE IMPACTS OF BANKING STRUCTURE ON SME FINANCE

LIU Xiao-guang1,GOU Qin2

2016, 36(6):  58-71. 

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This paper examines the relationship between banking structure and SME (small and medium enterprises) finance in China, based on a firm level survey data from World Bank and a bank sector data from China Bank Regulatory CommissionWe find that there is a Ushaped relationship between banking structure and SMEs credit rationing and the present level of banking structure in China stays slightly above the optimal levelIn addition, our research finds that the rising role of jointstock commercial banks in substituting the largest stateowned banks cant supply as a remedy to solve SMEs financing problemTherefore, promoting the development of small financial institutions is the effective way to support SMEs financing.

THE MECHANISM ANALYSIS OF R&D INNOVATION AND VOLATILITY——Based on the Enterprise Production Fluctuations Perspective

LI Zhuo,JIANG Yin-juan

2016, 36(6):  72-87. 

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Based on input varieties expanding technological progress framework, this paper built the theoretical model to analyze its mechanism of R&D innovation on firmlevel production volatility and tested the hypothesis by using chinese manufacturing enterprise datasetThe results showed that a large number of input varieties induced by R&D Innovation would reduce firmlevel volatility on some degreeFirms with greater R&D intensity and higher productivity were less volatileFurthermore, R&D investment would reduce firmlevel fluctuation indirectly by expanding input varieties and improving productivityNew product development would reduce firmlevel volatility both in indirect and direct channelThis paper verified that another effect existed besides “creative destruction” in R&D innovation on firmlevel volatility, and some policy suggestions about how to improve supply capacity and stabilize economic were provided.

ANALYSIS OF STRUCTURE DIVERGENCE AND ITS FACTORS OF RURAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME MOBILITY——From the Perspective of “Distance” and “Neighbor”

SHEN Yun

2016, 36(6):  88-101. 

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This paper analyzed the structure divergence and its factors of rural household income mobilityThe results show that: the household income mobility of the low income stratum is strong, and the ability to stabilize the position of the high income family is gradually increasing, the trend of the income of the household income is obviousThe effect of flow is the main reason that leads to the divergence of household income mobility, and the level of the household operation income is the biggest contributor to reduce the divergenceFrom the perspective of family intimacy and nearest neighbor convenience, the phenomenon is more apparent of household income flow that “distance” to “nearest neighbor”.It has strong significant effect on family character of kinship, kinship levels respectively on the family business income and wages income flow, and the higher the neighbor employment opportunities, stronger degree of organization, regional advantages, more conducive to enhancing the level of household income flow.

THE IMPACT OF CHINAUSMANUFACTURING TRADE ON THE RELATIVE WAGES OF THE US.

SHI Hui-min

2016, 36(6):  102-112. 

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Under the framework of neoclassical trade model,this paper uses China and USInputOutput,trade,and wage data to explore the impact of ChinaUSManufacturing trade on the relative wages in the USWe find that the net imports of the USfrom China have widened the wage gap between the skilled labor and unskilled labor in the US,but the magnitude is limitedAlong with the increasing trade between China and the US,this impact will strengthenIt potentially will lead to more trade protection against China under the name of protecting the unskilled workers in the US.