Economic Theory and Business Management
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DING Zhi-fan
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Published:
丁志帆
基金资助:
本文得到国家社科基金青年项目(14CJL019)的资助。
Abstract:
Based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, this paper studies the macro economy effects and internal propagation mechanisms under the anticipated and unanticipated fiscal policies using Chinas quarterly macroeconomic data between 1999 and 2014This study found as follows: Firstly, macro economy effects can explain 3634% of the output volatility, 1424% of the employment volatility and 618% of the price volatilitySecondly, different from the unanticipated fiscal policy affecting the economic equilibrium system directly, the anticipated fiscal policy changes economic equilibrium system mainly through affecting the publics beliefThirdly, the fiscal policy shocks macroeconomic effects not only depend on the type of public policies, but also need to consider the publics anticipationTherefore, the government should not only select rationally the fiscal policy based on the macroeconomic target, but also reasonably guide the publics anticipation, strengthen the fiscal policys pertinence and effectiveness.
Key words: anticipation , fiscal policy , macroeconomic effect
摘要:
本文根据1999—2014年中国宏观经济季度数据,在动态随机一般均衡模型框架下,考察了预期到的与未预期到的财政政策的宏观经济效应及其传导机制。本文研究发现:第一,预期到的与未预期到的财政政策均具有显著的宏观经济效应,二者合起来可以解释3634%的产出波动、1424%的就业波动和618%的物价波动;第二,与未预期到的财政政策直接影响经济均衡系统不同,预期到的财政政策主要是通过影响经济主体关于未来经济状态的信念来改变经济的均衡配置;第三,财政政策的宏观经济效应不仅取决于所选取的政策类型,而且受公众预期的影响。因此,政府不仅应当根据宏观经济目标理性选择财政政策工具,而且需要合理引导公众预期,以增强财政政策的针对性和有效性。
关键词: 预期 , 财政政策 , 宏观经济效应
DING Zhi-fan . ANTICIPATED AND UNANTICIPATED FISCAL POLICY SHOCK AND ITS MACRO ECONOMIC EFFECT[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management.
丁志帆. 预期到的与未预期到的财政政策冲击及其宏观影响*[J]. 经济理论与经济管理.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2016/V36/I6/13