Table of Content

16 July 2016, Volume 36 Issue 7

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THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VARIABILITY ON INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE DYNAMICS

YI Jing-tao,GU Ke-jian,MEN Xiao-chun

2016, 36(7):  5-15. 

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In the context of economic globalization acceleration, studies of the impact of exchange rate variability induced by changes in exchange rate regimes on industrial structure in open economies have significant implications for implementing further reform and openingup strategies in China We intend to examine the relationship between exchange rate variability and industrial structure dynamics in the context of institutional change in transitional China This study uses VAR models to analyze the short term and the long term effects of exchange rate variability on industrial structure change, based on the industrial sector in 2003—2012 The results show that an increase in exchange rate flexibility improves industrial structure in terms of factor intensity while an exchange rate appreciation will have negative effects on industrial structure change.

THE ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM AND POLICY PERSPECTIVE OF THE HOUSING RESTRICTION POLICY ON CHINAS URBAN HOUSING PRICES——Based on Single Centerdual Cycle City Model

HAN Yong-hui1,ZHANG Zuo-min2,ZOU Jian-hua3

2016, 36(7):  16-28. 

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In recent years, Chinas urban housing prices rose rapidly The housing restriction policy had been launched in order to adjust the realestate market and control urban housing prices In this paper, we constructed a single centerdual cycle city model of urban housing market with constraints of the housing restriction policy to analyze its effect and mechanism by means of numerical simulation The results showed that housing prices of cities with different scale decreased due to the restriction policy The housing prices of small and mediumsized cities declined more than those of large cities The larger the speculative housing demand, the more effective of the restriction policy However, as a nonmarket regulation means, the restriction policy could only be adopted temporarily Its necessary to fully consider heterogeneity of cities and dialectically choose restriction policy.

ASYMMETRIC EFFECT OF GENERAL MONETARY POLICY——Based on ESTSVAR Model

DENG Jing-yuan,WANG Wen-fu

2016, 36(7):  29-43. 

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:To describe the feature of Chinese economy，this paper introduces the exponential smoothing transition structure vector autoregressive (ESTSVAR) model to study the asymmetric effect of general monetary policies on output and price The key conclusions are as followsFirstly, monetary policies have asymmetric effect on output and price level, which depends on the economic situation Secondly, we use the Granger asymmetric causality test to enhance the robustness of our conclusion Thirdly, we suggest the government should guide capital into middle and small business for that can reduce the asymmetric effect of monetary policy.

DOES CUSTOMER CONCENTRATION RAISE OR REDUCE FIRMS CRASH RISK

CHU Jian,FANG Jun-xiong

2016, 36(7):  44-57. 

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As one of firms stakeholders, whether major customers can influence the operating and financial decision and risk is one of important topics both in theory and practice This paper studies the impact of customer concentration on firms crash risk We find that customer concentration reduces the firms crash risk, and this finding is robust to a series of tests The negative relation between customer concentration and firms crash risk stems from supply chain collaboration with major customers but not major customers bargaining power These findings indicate that customer concentration is beneficial for firms to realize supply chain collaboration and it can reduce firms crash risk by reducing their operating risk and information risk.

WHY DO CHINESE INDUSTRIAL SECTORS GROW WITHOUT PROFIT

HE Qing1,ZHANG Ce1,TIAN Xinming2

2016, 36(7):  58-70. 

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Despite the financial constraints, Chinese enterprises have grown rapidly in recent years However, most business growth turns out to be unprofitable To understand the mechanism driving this phenomenon, we develop a simple model and use enterprises data from industrial enterprises database to test our theory We show that the main reason of growth without profit is the economic distortions in Chinas economic system In particular, enterprises, which receive preferential government treatment and fiscal subsidies, grow more rapidly without proper financial plan When the business growth is unprofitable, most incremental capital is wasted or used inefficiently.

THE OPTIMAL DESIGN OF ANTIMONOPOLY RULES

CHEN Xiang-guang,ZHONG Zhou

2016, 36(7):  71-82. 

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The criticism from modern IO researches has pushed the courts and antimonopoly agencies in US and EU to apply more “effectbased” rules instead of per se prohibitions in cases related to tying, RPM etc Various types of optimal solution have been suggested both in practice and literature, but few of which have taken a step further to inquiry the criteria or processes that a reasonable optimal design should meet, let alone studies focused on Antimonopoly Law of China In this paper, we provide a preliminary analysis of the optimal design based on “error cost approach” theory The accuracy, operability, discretionary power and regulation cost related to the optimization have all been taken into account and an optimized scheme highlights the introduction of “intent safe harbor” has been proposed For better illustration, a case study of tying rule in Qihu 360 vs Tencent is introduced at the end of the paper.

INTERGENERATIONAL INCOME MOBILITY IN URBAN CHINA——An Estimation Based on JorgensonFraumeni Income Approach

DING Ting-ting1, WANG Shi-rui2,YU Li3

2016, 36(7):  83-97. 

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:Using the onlychild sample from China Household Income Project dataset, we study the trend and magnitude of intergenerational income in urban China from 1988 to 2007 Using more accurate measures of parents permanent income based on JorgensonFraumeni LifeCycle Income Approach, we alleviate the downward bias in IGM estimations It is found that IGM in urban China has been decreasing, which implies that the income structure is experiencing consolidation The ranges of IGM for year 1988, 1995, 2002 and 2007 are (>0262)，(>0483)，(0466,0544) and (0483,0554) respectively IGM in urban China is nonlinear in income We find a lower IGM in high income families than low income families.

A COMPARISON STUDY OF EUROPEAN AND US MNCS OFFSHORE R&D SPATIAL LOCATION STRATEGIES IN CHINA——A Clusternetwork Perspective Based on City Level

YU Pei

2016, 36(7):  98-112. 

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On the basis of R&D affiliates cluster network characteristic at city level, this paper establishes a “clusterseeking” strategic framework and employs discrete choice model to verify this theoretical perspective The sample includes 275 US and 207 European R&D affiliates located in China over the period 1992—2012, across 27 cities The empirical results reveal different spatial location strategies conducted by US and European firms: US firms adopt “knowledge clusterseeking” strategy, namely, host knowledge resources and technology infrastructure are important location determinants European firms prefer to seek “industrial cluster”, for instance, a citys manufacturing base, industrial specialization, and intrafirm forward linkage significantly affect their location choices The findings also identify firms heterogeneity in parent firms size and in European country of origin.