Table of Content

16 January 2016, Volume 36 Issue 1

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THE BOTTOM OF THE CHINESE MACRO ECONOMY——China s Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2015—2016

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2016, 36(1):  5-45. 

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The Chinese economy will continue to be moderating in 2016. In the shadow of the global business cycle, Chinas real estate cycle, Chinas debt cycle, Chinas inventory cycle, Chinas new industrial breeding cycle, China s political cycle, and with macroeconomic policy reorientation,Chinese economy will go through severe headwinds in 2016. The second bottom of the current economic cycle will begin to appear in the 3—4 quarter in 2016, and a steady rebound is expected to show up in late 2017, returning to the rapid and steady growth track. But all the predicting performances depend on the evolvement of the mentioned cycles above, which determines the bottom of the current downturn, the depth of the bottom and the length of duration. Therefore, high attention must be paid to the following issues: the reshape of the incentive system, the recovery of the real estate market, the evolvement of the world economy, and the reorientation of macroeconomic policy. At the same time, a lot of new industries, new formats and new impetus appeared in Chinese economy, making it a mixture of prosperity in downturn, new climate in weakness and new momentum in the old failing power. In the process of adjustment deepening, the basis of next round rapid growth is building.

PERSPECTIVE OF PUBLIC GOODS CAPITALIZATION——How Does Land Finance Affect Public Goods Provision

SONG Qi,TANG Yu-gang

2016, 36(1):  46-58. 

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Under the background of China s urbanization, applying the theory of public goods capitalization, this paper analyzes how the local land finance institution, including the land grant revenue institution and the related real estate tax institution, incentives the local public goods provision. Empirical analysis of city level data shows the land finances structural incentive effect on local public goods provision, but owing to the incentive mechanism based on land and real estate transactions, local governments fiscal effort is dissevered entirely by the trading point. Reforming the land finance system, and improving the tax system of real estate, with the purpose of land value capture system transformation from transactional style to assetkeeping style, will help to establish a symmetrical, sustainable local fiscal incentive system.

CREATIVE CLASS AGGLOMERATION, KNOWLEDGE EXTERNALITIES AND URBAN INNOVATION ——Evidence from 20 Large Cities

2016, 36(1):  59-70. 

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Is creative class agglomeration in cities beneficial for innovation? To answer the question, this paper builds a creative person living choice model, to expose the theoretical mechanism that creative class agglomeration promotes urban innovation through knowledge externalities, and then, uses panel data of Chinese 20 large cities during 2007—2012 to test the theoretical mechanism. In the basic estimation, after controlling knowledge externality variables such as human capital, foreign direct investment and foreign trade and other environmental variables, creative class agglomeration significantly promotes urban innovation. Based on city or period subsample, regressions show that the causal relationship between creative class agglomeration and urban innovation is robust. Research of this paper indicates that creating a good environment to attract the agglomeration of creative class can effectively enhance large cities  innovation level.

THE EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL LEVEL AND TRADE STRUCTURE

LIU Zuan-shi1,ZHANG Juan2

2016, 36(1):  71-83. 

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This paper applies the two financial characteristics: external finance dependence and asset tangibility to analyze the influence of financial level on the international trade structure. This paper converts the trade flow data at the 4digit SITC Rev2 industries level to the data covering 3digit ISIC sectors. With the industry level panel data, this paper finds that industries with higher external financial dependence have higher export shares and relative advantage at a higher level of financial development, but its negative for higher asset tangibility industries. Using the net trade and net relative advantage data, this paper provides the robust conclusion that the financial development is the important source of relative advantage.

THE MECHANISMS OF GOVERNMENT GOVERNANCE AFFECTING THE PRODUCTIVITY OF PRIVATE ENTERPRISES: MARKET EFFECT OR AGENCY COST EFFECT

ZHOU Jian1,XU Wei-bin2

2016, 36(1):  84-97. 

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This paper examines the process and path where government governance affects the productivity of private enterprises. It is the breakthrough point to understand the microscopic mechanism that Chinese local governments promote the development of private enterprises and local economic growth under the transition economy. Empirical evidence suggests that there are two effects of government governance: the market effect and government agency cost effect. The key to government governance affects firms productivity is the market effect. Further study finds that, government governance affects the sensitivity of the enterprise output to capital and intermediate inputs. The market effect mainly influences the sensitivity of the enterprise output to capital and intermediate inputs, and the cost effect mainly influences the sensitivity of the enterprise output to intermediate input.

CHINA S URBAN ECONOMIC GROWTH EFFECT OF PRODUCTION SERVICE AGGLOMERATION MODEL SELECTION——Spatial Durbin Model Analysis of Industries, Regions and Cities Heterogeneity

YU Bin-bin

2016, 36(1):  98-112. 

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Based analytical framework of the new economic geography, this paper tested the economic growth effects of production services agglomeration mode selection with spatial Durbin model through the statistics of Chinese 285 cities level data from 2003 to 2012. There is significant spatial correlation in specialized agglomeration, diverse agglomeration and economic growth of producer services in Chinese cities. The economic growth effects of production services agglomeration mode selection are constrained by industry, region and city size. Lowend producer services agglomeration in small cities gathering with specialized agglomeration specialization can promote economic growth, and highend producer services agglomeration of big cities and big cities are more suitable for a diverse agglomeration mode. Diverse agglomeration mode of producer services at the national level and regional level (east, central and west) are able to promote economic growth, and producer services specialized agglomeration the central region can also be significant positive effect to economic growth, thanks to producer services specialized agglomeration of economic growth spillover space. Enhance the market potential and human capital not only has a significant positive impact on the region s economic growth, but there are also significant role in promoting and spatial spillover effects for economic growth in the surrounding areas.