Table of Content

16 December 2015, Volume 35 Issue 12

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EMPIRICAL RESEARCH OF THE CHANGE OF EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE  RATE ON INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE EFFECT

WANG Song-qi-1,XU Qian-2

2015, 35(12):  5-18. 

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 As an important price signal, the exchange rate can affect the countrys participation in international division of labor, change the relative price of a countrys factor production which leads to a new allocation of domestic resources, and influence countrys industrial structure adjustment. Based on the three industry structure adjustments and different factors intensive industry restructuring, this paper studies the effect of the RMB effective exchange rate respectively. In analyzing the three industrial structure adjustments, from the national and regional levels, the empirical results show that the effective exchange rate of the second industry adjustment has obvious inhibitory effect, and has a role in promoting development of the third industry. The economic developed eastern area has a significantly greater influence than the midwest. Using labor and capital in the product market and factor market as the breakthrough point, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of exchange rate, and concluded that the effective exchange rate of capitalintensive industries and technologyintensive industries have promoting effect, and the influence of the real effective exchange rate is greater than the nominal effective exchange rate.

ARE THERE EFFICIENT FRONTIERS OF DOMESTIC DEMANDDRIVEN  GROWTH IN THE NEW NORMAL

YANG Zi-rong,DAI Jun-xun

2015, 35(12):  19-29. 

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How to maintain the rapid growth of Chinese economy is important and difficult in the New Normal. Because external demandled economic growth is gradually unsustainable, expanding domestic demand is becoming more and more important. However, is expanding domestic demand really effective national policy? Are there efficient frontiers if consumption and investment have a prominent influence on economic growth?  Based on these questions, this paper builds panel threshold model to empirically test the efficient frontiers of stimulating Chinese economic growth by boosting domestic demand from 2012 to 2013 by 275 urban data. The results show that there are efficient frontiers of investmentdriven growth, increasing investment will effectively stimulate economic growth when investment rate is low, but increasing investment has no effect on economic growth when investment rate is high. Furthermore, we find that there are efficient frontiers of consumptiondriven growth, increasing consumption will inhibit economic growth when investment efficiency is low, but increasing consumption will promote economic growth when investment efficiency is high.

MEASUREMENT OF SPATIAL SPILLOVERS OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL  INNOVATION KNOWLEDGE——Based on Perspective of Geographic Distance

JIN Gang-1,SHEN Kun-rong-1,HU Han-hui-2

2015, 35(12):  30-43. 

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This paper studies on spatial spillover effect and its geographic boundary of explicit and implicit knowledge based on the perspective of geographic distance, using statistical data of Chinas 31 provinces from 2002 to 2012, and we get several finds. Firstly, there exists significant spatial spillover effect of explicit and implicit knowledge among the Chinese provinces, and spillover effect of explicit knowledge is greater than it of implicit knowledge. With increasing geographic distance, spillover effect of explicit and implicit knowledge all present downward trend, and spillover effect of explicit knowledge declines rapidly outside the range of 1 000 kilometers, spillover effect of implicit knowledge no longer exist outside the range of 1 100 kilometers. Compared with simply increasing R&D personnel and capital, promoting interaction of R&D personnel and optimization of capital structure is more useful for regional knowledge growth. Finally, conclusions and policy recommendations expressed herein.

A STUDY OF EXPANSION COEFFICIENT OF ENDOWMENT  INSURANCE PAYMENT RATE

MU Huai-zhong-1,CHEN Yang-2,CHEN Xi-1

2015, 35(12):  44-54. 

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In order to reduce the endowment insurance payment rate and moderately reduce the urban employee basic pension payment rate, this paper put forward the concept of endowment insurance payment rate expansion coefficient and set up quantitative mathematical model. This paper concluded the superposition cost of social security system in transition, the limited liability of intergenerational overlapping in the whole society and the unpredictable of personal life cycle were the main reasons and internal rules of endowment insurance payment rates expansion. Quantitative study found that the current expansion coefficient of endowment insurance payment rate was 944% and the coverage expansion coefficient was 559%, the rate of payment according to system requirements expansion coefficient was 369% and the early retirement expansion coefficient was 016%. Longitudinal regression analysis showed that the coverage expansion coefficient elasticity was -015, the rate of payment according to system requirements expansion coefficient elasticity was -02, the early retirement expansion coefficient elasticity was 0938. Some policy suggestions were provided.

DOES REGIONAL FISCAL BEHAVIOR DRIVE THE DYNAMIC  ADJUSTMENT OF CHINAS TRADE BALANCE

LIN Feng-1,WU Zhou-heng-2

2015, 35(12):  55-65. 

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Utilizing provincial panel data from 1997 to 2013, this paper constructs a heteroscedastic dynamic adjustment model to test the impacts of regional fiscal behavior on the dynamic adjustment of Chinas trade balance. The empirical results show as follows. Firstly, the adjustment speed of trade balance is nearly 0045 which driven by regional fiscal behavior. Obviously, the impact of regional fiscal behavior is somehow low. Secondly, both of fiscal revenue decentralization and extrabudgetary expenditure can increase adjustment speed of trade balance. However, fiscal expenditure decentralization will reduce adjustment speed while fiscal revenue and budgetary expenditure exert no efforts on adjustment speed. Thirdly, the effects of adjustment speed have significant regional heterogeneity. Therefore, Chinas dynamic coordinated development issues in terms of regional fiscal behavior and trade balance should be considered.

RELATED PARTY TRANSACTIONS IN CHINESE BUSINESS GROUPS:  TUNNELING,PROPPING OR COINSURANCE

XU Rong-1,XU Xing-mei-2,QUAN Xiao-feng-3

2015, 35(12):  66-77. 

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Existing literatures have arguments on business groups function for its facilitating the controlling shareholder tunneling or propping the listed companies. Considering the dynamic interactions of tunneling and propping may overcome the limitation of single perspective. This paper investigates the timing selection, tool difference and economic consequences of tunneling and propping interactions. The results show that when listed companies facing delisted risk, controlling shareholder provides supports by both financing and nonfinancing RPTs. In turn, when controlling shareholder falls into financial crisis, only financing RPTs is provided by listed companies. The asymmetry interactions consist of coinsurance relationship among members of business groups, and the natural experiment based on RPTs regulatory policy change provides additional evidence. This finding has policy implications that regulators should make RPTs policies more flexible especially under crisis circumstance.

STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAREER CONCERNS  INCENTIVE AND INVESTMENT EFFICIENCY IN CHINAS CENTRAL SOES——Evidence in the Background of Anticorruption Storm

ZHAO Xi-bo,WANG Fang,LI Zhe

2015, 35(12):  78-93. 

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The principalagent issue in central SOEs is obviously reflected in the low efficiency of investment. Under the theoretical framework of principalagent issues, this paper applies the listed firms owned by central government in China from 2003 to 2014 as samples, and discusses the relationship between career concerns incentive and investment efficiency in Chinas central SOEs. We also investigate whether the anticorruption storm whipped up from the end of 2012 eases the relationship above. The empirical results show that investment efficiency decreases if career concerns incentive of the management is weakened. The anticorruption storm eases overinvestment but intensifies underinvestment in the given situation. This paper respectively analyzes formation mechanism of overinvestment and underinvestment supervened with the weakening incentive of the management, and provides helpful references for improving corporate governance as well as balancing incentive system in Chinas central SOEs.

CHINAS ECONOMIC GROWTH PATTERN IN  THE URBANIZATION PROCESS

DENG Zhong-qi,CHEN Yong-jun

2015, 35(12):  94-109. 

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Due to the lack of momentum of Chinas economic growth, stimulating domestic demand by urbanization is necessary. However, it is unclear whether Chinas urbanization pattern is extensive and whether it helps economic transformation. This paper rejects all the neoclassical conditions, and gives a new measurement of factorcontributions. Empirical results show as follows.  From 1985 to 2012, the contribution rate of capital is 6415%, and the contribution rates of labor, energy and TFP are respectively 326%, 2175%, and 1084%. Therefore the economic growth pattern is extensive. Additionally, regression analysis shows that, compared with Chinas industrialization and services, urbanization is more extensive. Therefore, in the new period, the key of Chinas economic transformation is the transformation of urbanization pattern.