Abstract:

Due to the lack of momentum of Chinas economic growth, stimulating domestic demand by urbanization is necessary. However, it is unclear whether Chinas urbanization pattern is extensive and whether it helps economic transformation. This paper rejects all the neoclassical conditions, and gives a new measurement of factorcontributions. Empirical results show as follows.  From 1985 to 2012, the contribution rate of capital is 6415%, and the contribution rates of labor, energy and TFP are respectively 326%, 2175%, and 1084%. Therefore the economic growth pattern is extensive. Additionally, regression analysis shows that, compared with Chinas industrialization and services, urbanization is more extensive. Therefore, in the new period, the key of Chinas economic transformation is the transformation of urbanization pattern.

Key words: transformation of economic growth pattern , growth momentum , urbanization

摘要：

在经济增长动力不足的当下，通过城镇化手段刺激内需进而拉动经济增长是必要举措。但中国城镇化模式是否粗放,是否有助于转变经济增长方式，却尚未被解答。为此，本文摒弃测算TFP增长率的新古典条件，放松生产函数形式、规模报酬不变和技术进步希克斯中性的要求，给出要素贡献率的非参数测算方法。在方法创新的基础上，本文实证研究显示：1985—2012年资本对中国经济增长的贡献率为6415%，占主导地位；劳动贡献率为326%，能源贡献率为2175%，而TFP贡献率仅为1084%，因此样本期间经济增长方式较为粗放，并且从趋势上看这种粗放性没有显著改善。回归分析表明，相比中国的工业化和服务业化而言，以往的城镇化比较粗放，阻碍了经济增长方式转变。因此，在经济新常态下转变经济增长方式更应当注重转变城镇化模式。\

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