Table of Content

16 August 2015, Volume 35 Issue 8

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THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST REPORT ON CHINAS MACRO ECONOMY ——Chinas Macro Economy with the Coexistence of Downturn and Boom,
Depression and Bubbles

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Research Group

2015, 35(8):  5-35. 

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In 2015, as statistics are declining beyond anticipation, Chinas macro economy entered a difficult stage of the new normal. In the short term, Chinas macro economy in the second half of this year, impacted by the rising of foreign trade, the bottoming of real estate investment, and the slight bouncing back of consumption, would hit bottom in the third quarter and then modestly rebound in the fourth. However, from the cyclical perspective, the year 2015 is not going to witness this rounds second bottom of the “dissymmetric Wshaped” cycle of adjustment. In fact, world economic cycle, Chinas real estate cycle, Chinas debt cycle, inventory cycle, new industry cultivation cycle, as well as political business cycle, together have determined that there would not be any strong and solid rebound until the middle of 2016. Regarding the ten new features and the four major risks emerging in “the new normal” of China economy, this report believes that, given the situation that the new normal has stepped into the critical stage and that many macro indicators have varied. Chinas macro economy policy needs an overall renewal, in either fundamental philosophy, theoretical foundation, frameworks and systems, general orientation, or the choice of tools.

THE EFFECT OF CREDIT FINANCING ON HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS
EXPORT PARTICIPATION ——An Theoretical and Empirical Analysis from the Angles of Trade Credit and Bank Credit

ZHANG Bin, KONG Xiang-Zhen, YANG Yong

2015, 35(8):  36-46. 

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This paper studied the effect of credit financing on firms export participation based on trade credit and bank credit using the framework of new trade theory focusing on the promoting effect of trade credit on bank credit, which provided microscopic financial evidence of Chinese export growth “miracle” from the firm angle. The credit financing was put into a heterogeneous firm export model to prove the improvement of trade credit and bank credit will affect the export by easing export cost constraint. An empirical analysis using Chinese manufacturing firms and IVprobit model was adopted to confirm our results. The findings were the following. Firstly, the improvement of trade credit and bank credit may increase the probability of the firms export. Secondly, the positive effect of trade credit on bank credit is helpful for firms to participate in export. Thirdly, the influence of trade credit on firms export participation is not varied with firms size, ownership, industrial competitive level and export fixed cost. But the role of bank credit is influenced by the above factors. The role of the positive effect of trade credit on bank credit is affected by firms size and ownership. In conclusion, the developing of the credit financing, the setting up of the mutual exchange mechanism of trade credit and the bank credit are important methods to speed up Chinese export growth.

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY
GROWTH ——Empirical Research Based on Chinas Provincial Panel Data

LI Jian, WEI Ping

2015, 35(8):  47-65. 

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By using the dynamic panel model with balanced panel data of 30 provincial level units from 2000—2012 in China, this paper analyzes that the influence of financial development on total factor productivity (TFP) growth. This paper applies the twodimensional index to measure the financial development, including financial scale and financial efficiency. The indirect estimation method and data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure the scale of informal finance and the total factor productivity (TFP). The empirical results show that technical progress mainly contributes to the growth of total factor productivity from 2000—2012.Both financial scale and financial efficiency significantly promote total factor productivity (TFP) growth. The TFP growth effect of financial efficiency is larger than that of financial scale. The channel to promote the growth of TFP is the effect of technical progress rather than technical efficiency.Informal finance has a positive impact on the growth of total factor productivity. The TFP growth effect of informal financial surpasses that of formal finance.

REGIONALLY HETEROGENEOUS OF INTEREST RATE,TRANSREGIONAL
IMPACT OF INCOME AND HOUSING PRICE SPILLOVERS

YU Hua-Yi, HUANG Yan-Fen

2015, 35(8):  65-91. 

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Firstly, this paper constructs a theoretical framework which can explain the spillovers of housing price, the transregional impact of real income per capita on housing prices as well as the impact of interest rate shock to the housing price development among different cities. Then, using GVAR model, the empirical results show that, the firsttier cities, such as Beijing, have comparatively large spillovers of housing price, while the spillovers in central and western cities are not obvious. The housing price of firsttier and eastern cities are not only affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves but also affected by that of other cities to a large extent, while the housing price of central and western cities are mainly affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves. The real interest rate changes have large influence on the housing price of firsttier cities and eastern cities, but weak influence on that of central and western cities. The empirical results have definite policy implications.

THE STUDY ON CHINESE COMMERCIAL BANKS OVERALL EFFICIENCY ——Basing on Composite Network DEA Model with Intermediate Input and
Intermediate Output

HAN Song-1, WANG 二Ming-2

2015, 35(8):  81-91. 

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Basing on the deeply analysis, we regard the banking business as a twostage network with intermediate input and output. The first subprocess is characterized by liabilities and intermediary business. The second subprocess is characterized by assets. Based on the network, we construct a network DEA model with intermediate input and output. Moreover, we prove that network efficiency is equivalent to substage efficiency, which means our model can reveal the inner structure of the black box. We also calculate the overall efficiency, substage efficiency and correlation index of 16 Chinese listed commercial banks from 2006 to 2010. The results show that stateowned commercial banks revealed obvious advantage in the liability and intermediate business. Jointstock commercial banks are most efficient in assets business. And city commercial banks have the lowest correlation index.

PROVINCIAL DIFFERENCES OF FINANCIAL EXCLUSION IN SMES

LI Jian-Jun, ZHANG Dan-Jun

2015, 35(8):  92-103. 

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It has been proved that regional imbalances exist in capital allocation of enterprises due to the imbalances of regional development in China. It is practically significant to study the provincial differences and definition factors of financial exclusion in SMEs for the formulation and implementation of differentiated policy, promotion of financial efficiency, and relief of the financing difficulties for SMEs. Based on the theory of financial exclusion, this paper constructs a fivedimensional index system of financial exclusion and provincial financial exclusion index of SMEs. The empirical results reveal that there exist significant provincial differences of financial exclusion for SMEs, and the degree of selfexclusion of SMEs in eastern region is lighter than central and western region. Moreover, the factors of supplyside initiative exclusion are dominant and access exclusion has greatest effects on the provincial differences. Furthermore, technical condition exclusion is greater than the demandside initiative exclusion. It is necessary to make efforts to mitigate financial exclusion from the aspects of supplyside initiative exclusion, construct information system construction and reduce selfexclusion in order to remote the financing efficiency.

THE SIZE OF CHINAS URBAN SYSTEM AND URBAN
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

CAI Zhi-Bing, ZHANG Ke-Yun

2015, 35(8):  104-112. 

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Over the past three decades Chinas urbanization process has made great achievements. However, what kind of city as an urban development strategy should focus on is always controversial. This paper attempts to take advantage of 143 prefecturelevel cities data to research whether there is a unique optimal city size in china and the results show that there is no single optimal city size standards. Based on the Zipf law and the index of the ability of providing job of urban, this paper studies the scale system of our existing cities, and explores that the overall size of the city is currently too small to provide sufficient employment. Finally, some relevant suggestions are provided based on research results.