Abstract: Firstly, this paper constructs a theoretical framework which can explain the spillovers of housing price, the transregional impact of real income per capita on housing prices as well as the impact of interest rate shock to the housing price development among different cities. Then, using GVAR model, the empirical results show that, the firsttier cities, such as Beijing, have comparatively large spillovers of housing price, while the spillovers in central and western cities are not obvious. The housing price of firsttier and eastern cities are not only affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves but also affected by that of other cities to a large extent, while the housing price of central and western cities are mainly affected by the real income per capita of these cities themselves. The real interest rate changes have large influence on the housing price of firsttier cities and eastern cities, but weak influence on that of central and western cities. The empirical results have definite policy implications.

Key words: spillovers of housing price , regional divergence , interest rate policy , GVAR model

摘要： 本文首先构建了理论分析框架，解释了中国不同城市间房价溢出效应、收入对房价的跨区影响，以及利率调整对不同城市房价的区域异质性影响。本文利用GVAR模型对该框架进行了实证，结果显示北京等一线城市的房价波动对其他城市具有较大的溢出性，而中西部城市的房价溢出性则不明显。一线城市和东部城市的房价波动不仅受本城市人均收入变动的影响，还在很大程度上受其他城市收入变动的影响，而中西部城市的房价则主要受本城市收入变动的影响。利率变动对一线城市和东部城市的房价影响则较大，而对中西部城市的房价影响有限。本文结论具有明确的政策含义，比如政府应通过稳定一线城市房价以达到稳定全国房价的目的，促进公共产品均等化，实行地区差异化的房地产政策等。通过利率调整来调控房价也是一个可行的政策选项。

关键词: 房价溢出效应 , 区域异质性 , 利率政策 , GVAR 模型