Table of Content

16 July 2015, Volume 35 Issue 7

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THE “DUAL OUTPUT” STRUCTURE OF SINOUS AND NEW CHANGES

WEN Tie-Jun, GAO Jun, ZHANG Jun-Na

2015, 35(7):  5-15. 

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Since the late 20th century，the SinoUS relations as the most important NorthSouth relations largely reflected the evolution of the world situationThe current situation between the two countries shows that the United States and China are both leading countries although in different stages of development，and both are superpowersThe essences of relations between two big powers are “dual output”: China exports cheap manufactured goods and foreign exchange reinvestment to the United States; the United States exports lowcost funds and financial services to ChinaWhats more，they are both in a period of “mutual transformation”The Chinese economy is entering the financial capital stage and reducing the huge benefit delivered to the United States “freeriders”Meanwhile the United States is undergoing a return to industry that is in competition with Chinese industrial capitalThis transformation of the United States economy will lead to China increasingly bearing the costs of global financial crisesIt will lead to a reversal of the geopolitical partnership between the two sides during the Cold War dominated by the United States in the 1970s as well as the cooperative economic relationship of the outward transfer of US industry of the 1990sIf China is in a position of economic crisis，it will be difficult to deal with the institutional cost of these “imported crises”，and can only cope by transferring the cost internallyThese potential crises can be averted by incorporating ecological civilization and the integrated development of urban and rural areas as part of Chinas comprehensive national security strategy and using the support of local communities to avert potential crises by means of a “soft landing”

A STUDY OF THE PRICE TENDENCY DETERMINATION BASED ON
CORE INFLATION PERSPECTIVE

DING Hui, FAN Cong-Lai, QIAN Li-Hua

2015, 35(7):  16-23. 

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The core inflation is crucial for the central bank to determine price movements correctly and realize the target of stabilizing pricesThis paper applies the generalized dynamic factor model and spectral decomposition technique to estimate Chinas core inflationFindings of comparative analysis to CPI show that the estimated core inflation index can better reflect the periodic features and longterm trend of price changes in our country，and thus it has great reference value for the central bank to guide public expectation on inflation more suitably and reach dynamic equilibrium between price and output stabilityConsidering the superposition and complexity of inflation cause factors during our countrys transformation period，this paper further argues that financial macroregulation should take multiple inflation indexes including core inflation index and CPI into account to achieve the balance between longterm price stability and shortterm price fluctuation

THE NEW EXTERNALLYORIENTED DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
AND ITS EXCEEDING OF FACTOR PRICE DISTORTIONS ERA ——Empirical Analysis Based on Dual Margins and Intraproduct Specification

LEI Da, ZHANG Sheng-Man

2015, 35(7):  24-35. 

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For more than three decades when China had carried out externaloriented development strategy，factor price distortions have represented one of most distinctive featuresThis paper，puts its analysis in the perspective of dual margins and intraproduct specification，explores what influence can be done by factor price distortions and the position in intraproduct specification to Chinese exporters，both respectively as well as jointlyThe results indicate that in Chinas factor markets there exist serious negative price distortions，by which exporters extensive margin was restrained while their intensive margin was stimulatedHowever，by escalating the positions in intraproduct specifications，and by its interaction with factor price distortions，one can stimulate the extensive margin significantly，while no significant influence can be found on the intensive marginThus the externaloriented development strategy can still benefit China，as long as China discards factor price distortions and replaces them with favorable positions in intraproduct specifications

DIFFERENT SAVING PROPENSITIES，INCOME DISTRIBUTION
AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION

YU Ze-1, ZHANG Xiao-Meng-2,LIU Feng-Liang-1

2015, 35(7):  36-47. 

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High saving rate，functional income distribution inequality，structure transformation are three main facts in Chinas economic growthThis paper builds an unbalanced growth model，proving that the three facts form a selfconsistent system，and are interrelatedConsidering the different labor income and capital income saving propensities as a background，two opposite driving factors of structure change ariseOn the one hand，high investment resulted from high saving raises manufacturing sector and decelerates service sector directlyMeanwhile，low consumption resulted from high saving rate deactivate Engels effect，impedes structure transformationOn the other hand，high saving causes high investment that fertilizes capital deepening and promotes sector changeSector transformation also effects saving rate and income distributionThis paper proves that the system has a generalized balanced growth path

THE INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE EFFECT OF RENMINBI EXTERNAL
REAL EXCHANGE RATE

CHEN Zhi, SHI Jian-Huai

2015, 35(7):  48-54. 

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The industrial structure effects of Renminbi external real exchange rate are researched in this paperTheoretical analysis shows that external real exchange rate depreciation may enhance net export by both cost effect and expenditure switching effect，and therefore the production of other sector by industrial division effect，income effect，and urbanization effectEmpirical results support that external real exchange rate depreciation may have a positive effect on manufacturing production as a wholeBut such an effect is less significant than that of foreign demandExternal real exchange rate depreciation may have a positive but lagged effect on service production

STUDY ON XEFFICIENCY OF RURAL SMALL AND MEDIUMSIZED
 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS ——Based on the Data of Zhejiang Province

FU Chang-Luan-1, ZHU Xi-Hu-2

2015, 35(7):  55-62. 

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This paper discusses the factors that influence Xefficiency of rural small and mediumsized financial institutions (RSMFI) from inside and outside aspects and builds the basic regression modelThis paper selects the DFA and other ways to measure the efficiency of financial institutionsThe empirical study is based on the survey data of 2010—2012 years from Zhejiang province and using the least squares estimation equationThe research shows that the financial institution that has a large market share and high initiative of loan also has high XefficiencyAt the same time，the regional economic growth and the degree of financial market development also have positive rolesBut the market concentration degree will inhibit the improvement of Xefficiency of the RSMFI if it is too highSo it should take measures to encourage competition in the marketIn addition，the growth of economic and the development of financial market have negative cross effects on Xefficiency of RSMFI，which should be treated differently at different areas in the process of small and mediumsized financial institutions

LAND RIGHTS VERIFICATION，CREDIT TRANSFORMATION AND THE
NEOCLASSICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE RURAL FINANCE

MI Yun-Sheng, ZHENG Xiu-Juan, ZENG Ze-Ying, LIU Song

2015, 35(7):  63-73. 

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Land has three attributes of capital，real estate and commodities，which can be used as the carrier of reputation，accepted by the commercial bank as collateral and used to control the stranger the default risk of the societyLand rights verification can contribute to the modernization of the rural financeTheoretical models and empirical results in this paper show that rural land rights can be conducive to endogenous development of the rural finance from four aspects: height，trade environment，depth as well as breadthRural land rights verification not only raises the importance of risk control regarding institutional trust in commercial banks，but also reduces its overreliance on interpersonal trust and social capitalBy promoting the credit transformation from interpersonal trust to institutional trust，land rights verification benefits the neoclassical development of the rural finance

FRONTIER TECHNOLOGY，ABSORBING CAPACITY AND REGIONAL
INDUSTRY COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT

ZHANG Zhi-Qiang, LU Da-Fei

2015, 35(7):  74-86. 

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Based on the new growth theory，this paper proposed an integrated empirical framework to probe regional industry convergence effect between regional industry technology gap which is measured in terms of technology frontier，regional industry endowment，frontier technology absorbing ability and its counterpart industry TFPThe empirical results show as follows: the frontier technology gap can improve the regional industry TFP convergence processIt can increase the industry TFP in the shortrun and have longrun cointegration relationship between these variablesThe industry frontier absorbing ability that is gauged by human capital and R&D ratio can increase industry TFP dramaticallySpatial spillover effect strengthens these effectsIt is conductive to improve the frontier absorbing ability，coordinate the spatial planning of regional infrastructure and R&D for regional economic development as well as increase the interregional financial coordination and development financingThis is an effect way to improve the level of regional coordinated development and guarantee the realization of regional harmonious development in the longrun for China

RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND NONAGRICULTURE TFP IN CHINA ——A Study Based on Resource Misallocation between Manufacturing and Service Sectors

WANG Wen-1, SUN Zao-1, NIU Ze-Dong-2

2015, 35(7):  87-99. 

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In recent years，economists have gradually reached a consensus with policy makers: one of the most important reasons that decreases productivity in developing economies is the misallocation of limited resourcesUsing Chinas manufacturing and service data during 1993—2011，this paper analyzes the impact of misallocation between manufacturing and service sector on Chinas nonagricultural TFPThe result shows as followsThe resource misallocation between manufacturing and service sector causes 40% nonagricultural TFP loss since 2000The resource misallocation between manufacturing and service sector mainly comes from the misallocation between equipment manufacturing industry and producer servicesThe capital misallocation between equipment manufacturing industry and producer services is higher than the labor misallocationThis paper suggests that the industrial policy should be aimed at promoting the coordinated development between manufacturing and service sector

HUMAN CAPITAL AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT: A DISCUSSION UNDER
THE PERSPECTIVE OF REGIONAL INTERACTION

XIE Cheng-Yang, HU Han-Hui, ZHOU Hai-Bo

2015, 35(7):  100-112. 

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By using spatial expansion on Lucas model，the relationship between human capital and regional development is discussed under the perspective of regional interactionThe empirical results show as followsFirst，a labor receives a higher income in the region with more total human capitalSecond，the increase of total human capital raises the regional real output while that of average human capital raises potential outputThird，considering both transaction cost and externality effect，the adjacent areas of economic heights are always the first choice for the flowingout laborsThe empirical study based on spatial econometrics indicates that the cross regional effect of human capital is increasing and the average human capital rather than the total one is the main reason for regional economic gaps