Table of Content

16 June 2015, Volume 35 Issue 6

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REORIENTATION OF THE ECONOMIC STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT
UNDER FISCAL DILEMMA

Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast Research Group

2015, 35(6):  5-20. 

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The discordance between Chinese fiscal mechanism and the development of social and economic environment causes the fiscal contradiction in the balance of payment and the structure contradiction between central and regional government, which leads to the fiscal policy dilemma. The structural adjustment conducted by the supply side of the government highly requires for government spending and tax reduction. Therefore, it is hard to persist. So the structural adjustment should focus on the demand side of the market. In the downward trending of economy, companies do not have much flexibility, so that tax reduction conducted by government cannot help companies to develop. Instead, we need to spur the aggregate demand through innovations. To sum up, we need to carry out adaptable fiscal reform.


THE REBALANCING OF CHINESE ECONOMY

LI Dao-Kui,XU Xiang

2015, 35(6):  21-28. 

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Most researches on Chinese macroeconomic structure believe that Chinese economy still has very serious external and internal imbalances. According to a detailed analysis of Chinese macro statistics, we believe that the rebalancing of the Chinese economy is faster than expected. We provide both theoretical and empirical evidence to prove that increasing labor share is the key to structural improvements in Chinese economy since 2007.

THE EFFECTS OF REAL ESTATE MARKET ON STOCK RETURNS
OFFINANCIAL HOLDING COMPANIES UNDER THE BUSINESS CYCLES

SU Xin-Mei-1,HUANG Jian-Ming-2,LIN Dong-Kuan-3

2015, 35(6):  29-42. 

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This paper aims to investigate the effect of business cycles on financial industries in Taiwan stock market from January 2003 to June 2011. In contrast to prior studies, this paper examines whether the real estate market affect the behavior of stock prices by sorting the financial holding and nonfinancial holding companies. Empirical results show that there are not significant effects between the real estate market and nonfinancial holding companies during business expansion periods, but the real estate market have negative effects in financial holding companies because of the influences of both the cost of funds and the purchase intentions in real estate market. In addition, the significant effects from momentum factors also confirm that market investors have commonly irrational investment decision and speculative behaviors. Finally, nonfinancial holding companies present negative significantly sensitivities when the expected interest rate change in the monetary market during expansion periods, but not found in financial holding companies

PRICEBASED MONETARY POLICY OPERATION FRAMEWORK:
CONDITIONS,MECHANISM AND REALIZATION OF INTEREST
RATE CORRIDOR

FANG Xian-Ming

2015, 35(6):  43-51. 

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With the advancement of commercial banks property right marketization and the emergence of financial innovations, the effectiveness of quantitybased monetary policy has declined. This paper analyzes the behavior of commercial banks, and further demonstrates the preconditions and operating mechanism of interest rate corridor system, based on commercial banks target of profit maximization. This study shows that, the preconditions of interest rate corridor system are perfect institutional arrangements, commercial banks status as marketoriented entity, a fully competitive market, and a highly efficient realtime settlement system.During the operation of interest rate corridor system, when too much liquidity is injected into the monetary market, the system could be transferred into floor system.The framework of pricebased monetary policy can implement the adjustment of the price and quantity of capital respectively, thus the monetary policy can be more specific and effective. Based on this study, this paper puts forward some suggestions on establishment of interest rate corridor system, duties of the central bank, and behavior of commercial banks, to build an approach in which Chinas monetary policy operation framework can transform from quantitybased into pricebased.

MONETARY POLICY EFFECTS ON CHINA S FINANCIAL STABILITY
AND SOVEREIGN CREDIT RISK

QIAN Zong-Xin,GANG Jian-Hua

2015, 35(6):  52-68. 

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We study the impacts of monetary policy on China s sovereign risk and the systemic risk during the global financial crisis. We pinpoint two upward jumps in the systemic risk. Evidence shows the increases in systemic risk can be tracked to the contagion of the global financial market. But impacts of domestic monetary policy actions are also nonnegligible. These also apply to China s sovereign risk. Expansionary monetary policy shocks significantly increased China s systemic risk but decreased its sovereign risk while had limited impact to the real economy. Our findings call for more prudent monetary policies in the context of high global financial risk.

THE BASIC PATH AND TREND OF THE EVOLUTION OF CHINESE
RELATIONS IN THE RECENT CENTURY

LI Bao-Yuan,DONG Qing,CHOU Yong,ZHANG Jing

2015, 35(6):  69-79. 

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Based on the methodology of Marx that is the unity of history and logic, this paper roundly and objectively describes the basic path and trend of the historical evolution of Chinese labor relations in the recent century.Benefit both employers and employees, the alienation of labor and capital return is the basic clue of the centurial evolution of Chinese labor relationsThe business groups of JinMerchant and HuiMerchant, chambers of commerce in the Republic of China, stateowned enterprises and private enterprises reflect historical track of the centurial evolution of Chinese employer organization. The personal shares, the indentured laborers, the regular workers and the peasant workers reflect the trend of centurial evolution of Chinese laborers  status. Legislative regulation, administrative monopolizing and macrocontrol show the centurial evolution of government s role in Chinese labor relations management. In view of historical tradition, cultural characteristics and transformation reality, this paper comes to a conclusion that marketization, contracting and legalization should be the basic orientation and strategic choice of future development of Chinese labor relations.

THE OPTIMAL DYNAMIC COLLOCATION OF SENIOR
EXECUTIVES  INCENTIVE CONTRACTS ——An Empirical Study Based on Enterprise Lifecycle Theory

WANG Xu-1,XU Xiang-Yi-2

2015, 35(6):  80-93. 

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Executives  incentive effect mostly depends on collocation status of the whole incentive contracts system. The optimal collocation of incentive contracts must follow the enterprises  lifecycle processing rule, which is guided by executives  sensitivity towards their own utility of both monetary and nonmonetary forms. Based on lifecycle theory and principleagent theory, this paper explains the change regulation of executives  utility and the features of three incentive mechanisms, based on which the optimal dynamic collocation of incentive contracts. By using Chinese hightech listed corporations  panel data as research sample, the impacts upon agency cost from incentive contracts have been tested. Empirical results show that, during both growing and decaying periods, compensation incentive contract can restrain agency costs significantly. Meanwhile executive  reputation incentive mechanism has the same influence towards agency costs while corporations in mature stage. However, the governance effect from control right incentive is not significant. On the contrary, it boosts agency cost during the corporations decaying period. Accordingly, in order to realize the optimal incentive effect, the term structure of compensation incentive should be optimized, and constancy of reputation incentive should be extended. Meanwhile, setting up efficient control rights management system is also essential to promote executives  incentive effect.

THE INFLUENCING FACTORS RESEARCH ON REVERSE TECHNOLOGY
SPILLOVERS EMBODIED IN CHINAS OUTWARD FOREIGN DIRECT
INVESTMENT ——Based on Nonlinear Threshold Regression Using Country Panel Data

HAN Yu-Jun,WANG Li

2015, 35(6):  94-105. 

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This paper analyzes the mechanism of reverse technology spillovers of outward foreign direct investment, and investigates the influencing factors of reverse technology spillovers embodied in China s outward foreign direct investment by applying the thirteen main developed countries  panel data of China outward foreign direct investment from 2003 to 2013.The empirical results show that the significant positive factors include the technological gap between China and host country, host country s R&D expenditure, total factor productivity, human resource, technological innovation ability and institution environment. Meanwhile, this paper conducts threshold effect test by using the technological gap as threshold variables. The outcome suggests that there exists one threshold. When the technological gap is large, it has the positive impact on reverse technology spillovers effect. After the technological gap is smaller, the positive relation also exists, but the influence degree will decrease.

DISCUSSION OF COMMUNITY HOME ENDOWMENT OF
SOCIAL COORDINATION MECHANISM

YANG Ji-Rui-1,XUE Xiao-2

2015, 35(6):  106-112. 

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Community home endowment is the innovation and development of the traditional family pension mode in China, which is under the new situation the Chinese older family in the condition of market economy, conforms to our country s current national conditions and the actual situation of many elderly households. However, the further development of China s community home endowment is lack of social service system, social communication channel, pension problems and professional hardware. In addition to improve relevant endowment hardware facilities, we need to build professional organizations, use the internet to link all resources and build atmosphere of the worthiness, to further promote the improvement of the community home endowment patterns.