Table of Content

16 March 2015, Volume 35 Issue 3

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CHINAS MACRO ECONOMY IN 2014—2015 ——Stepping into the Critical Stage of the New Normal
RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

School of Economics, Renmin University of China

2015, 35(3):  5-33. 

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The year 2014 is the year of “great reform” and “great adjustment” for China, and the year of continuing development along the trajectory of the new normal as well On the one hand, due to the interplay of soft foreign demand, shrinking domestic demand, cyclical adjustment of real estate, and deep economywide distortions, the growth rate of GDP is continually slowing down On the other hand, economic structure has incurred significant changes in the mix of consumption upgrading, reversed imbalanceand policy adjustment The benevolent adjustment of structural parameters, gradually falling price index, and stable employment conditions are shedding light on the sluggish economy
The year of 2015 is a year of Chinas fullfledged development of “great reform” and “great adjustment” Following the same logic of Chinas economic development in 2014, the year of 2015 will continue to witness the four classical characteristics of the new normal However, with comprehensive improvement in reform indepth, enlarging cyclical adjustment of real estate, sustainable downturn of economic growth, and further deterioration of fiscal dilemma, Chinas macro economy in 2015 will face six major challenges and changing points, which implies that the bottomline management must be strengthened along with the wideranging implementation of Chinas macroeconomic reform and adjustment
Through model parameterization under the circumstance of the new normal, this report used the CMAFM model developed by Renmin University of China to predict several main macroeconomic indicators in 2015 The predicted growth rate of GDP is72%, CPI 27%, investment 123%, consumption 118%, and exports 56%.

THE EFFECT OF EXTERNAL FINANCING CONSTRAINTS ON EXPORT
BEHAVIOR

ZHANG Zhong-Yuan

2015, 35(3):  34-49. 

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Using Chinese 2 700 corporate data from the World Bank 2012 Enterprise Surveys, this paper analyzed the effects of corporate external financing constraints on enterprises export propensity and export intensityThe empirical results suggested that enterprises suffering external financing constraints would significantly reduce their export propensity and the proportion of export salesEnterprises exposed to different external financing constraints had different effects on its export behaviorSpecifically, the loan application process complexity, high interest rates resulting in external financing constraints could significantly reduce the proportion of export sales, while insufficient loan size and duration would significantly reduce the likelihood of enterprises to participate in the exportToo high collateral requirements significantly reduced both the likelihood of enterprises export propensity and the proportion of export sales of enterprise products

ENTERPRISE MICROFLUCTUATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR
THE MACROECONOMIC POLICY
——An Empirical Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies

YANG Ji-Dong,LIU Cheng

2015, 35(3):  50-59. 

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By using 2002—2011 panel data of Chinese listed companies, this paper accurately measures Chinas micro fluctuation, and examines the impact of macroeconomic We find that enterprise micro waves have obvious changes, and that enterprises overall increase fluctuations after the 2008 financial crisis The trend of business revenues, profits and employment is differentThe fluctuation of profit is greater than income, and employment is relative stable Further, from the policy implications of microscopicfluctuations, microscopic fluctuations may exacerbate firms “waitandsee effect” Macroeconomic policy has led to a greater shortterm effect, smaller real effect

RESEARCH ON THRESHOLD EFFECTS OF INDUSTRIAL
AGGLOMERATION AND ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY DIFFERENCES
OF CHINAS URBAN AGGLOMERATION

YU Bin-Bin

2015, 35(3):  60-73. 

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This paper studied the threshold effects of industrial agglomeration to regional economic efficiency with dynamic GMM estimation method based on panel data of Chinas top ten urban agglomeration areas from 2003 to 2011 Williamson hypothesis and openness hypothesis were verified in this paper The empirical results showed that the industrial specialization agglomeration would hinder economic efficiency under the threshold level of economic development of urban agglomerations，but no significant impacts on the urban population under other threshold effects Industrial diversification agglomeration could significantly promote economic efficiency above the threshold of population size and all stages of level of economic development of urban agglomerations But the impacts on urban agglomerations under other threshold effects were not significant Improvement of openness and the coordinated development of the industries and the services would be conducive to enhance the economic efficiency of urban agglomerations The impact effects of industrial specialization agglomeration and diversification agglomeration to the economic efficiency of urban agglomeration did not support for the Williamson hypothesis But the industrial diversification agglomerationverified the applicability of the openness hypothesis in China Finally this paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations

EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF INTERGOVERNMENTAL
TRANSFER PAYMENTS ON FISCAL EXPENDITURE BEHAVIOR OF
NATIONAL POVERTYSTRICKEN COUNTIES ——A Study Based on 592 National Povertystricken Counties

LI Dan,ZHANG Xia

2015, 35(3):  74-84. 

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Based on the study of the national poverty counties, this paper analyzes the effect of intergovernmental transfer payment on changes in financial expenditure behavior By using a dynamic panel regression model and the system GMM method, this paper studies the effect of all kinds of transfer payment and the incremental of transfer payment on the behavior of fiscal expenditure for local government The empirical results show that there is no special preference of some kind of fiscal expenditure The national poverty counties may have to keep the title of povertystricken counties, and give up the development Fiscal transfer payments are used to maintain their own interest spending and coordinate the interests among all parties.


THE RMB ONSHORE MARKET: AN INCOMPLETE PRICING CENTER

WANG Jin-Bin,NI Ying

2015, 35(3):  85-93. 

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This study found that both onshore RMB spot rate and forward rate had a significant mean spillover effect on the change of offshore RMB forward rate, which indicated that the onshore market remains the pricing center of RMB. However, the empirical results also suggested a relatively smaller mean spillover from offshore spot market to onshore spot market.Meanwhile, there already existed channels for volatility spillovers and shock spillovers between the three markets (CNY market, CNH market and NDF market). Therefore, we concluded that the onshore market had become an incomplete pricing center of RMB. Viewed from the content and direction of these spillover effects, stabilizing the expectation of onshore RMB rate remained the key to reduce the excessive volatility of RMB exchange rate.

THE MECHANISM OF ENTREPRENEURIAL DECISIONMAKING:
INFLUENCING FACTORS AND RELATIONSHIPS

QIN Zhi-Hua,ZHAO Jing,HU Lang

2015, 35(3):  94-102. 

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On the basis of the existing research, we focus on the process of entrepreneurial decisionmaking under the same business scene. Using statistical analysis of 263 samples, we find that risk perception, risk propensity, effectuation and experience cognitive have important effect on entrepreneurial decisionmaking. The difference is that the risk perception does not mediate the influence of risk propensity to decisionmaking, but has a direct impact on decisionmaking. Effectuation, which caught attention of entrepreneurship research in recent years, also has direct impact on it. The empirical results show that the experience cognitive as an independent variable affects entrepreneurial decisionmaking through the factors of risk perception, risk orientation, effectuation.

URBANRURAL DIVISION, REGIONAL SEGMENTATION AND
INSUFFICIENT ACCESS OF SOCIAL SECURITY ENTITLEMENT OF
CHINAS MIGRANT WORKERS

QIN Li-Jian,WANG Zhen,GE Yu-Hao

2015, 35(3):  103-112. 

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The purpose of this paper was to examine the effect of urbanrural division and regional segmentation on the social security access of Chinas migrant workers．The data collected by the Chinas National Health and Family Planning Commission in December 2010．The instrumented IVProbit model was adopted to solve the endogeneity problem between wage and participation in social insurance of the workers．We found that there existed serious effects of urbanrural division and regional segmentation on the access to social insurance for the migrant workers．The level of effect of the regional segmentation was higher than that of the urbanrural division．Furthermore，both the effects of urbanrural division and regional segmentation would be lower estimated if the endogeneity problem was not solved．