Table of Content

16 February 2015, Volume 35 Issue 2

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AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS ON REGIONAL DISPARITIES OF FISCAL
DECENTRALIZATION,FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,
INDUSTRIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN CHINA

MA Ying-1, LI Jing-2, CHEN Bo-3

2015, 35(2):  5-19. 

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In this paper, we adopt the provincial panel data of Chinas 28 regions since 1978 and develop a cointegration model to test the longrun relationship among fiscal decentralization, financial development, industrialization and economic growth. Then, we use the FMOLS method to estimate the model. We also embed a hypothesis that the behaviors of local government officials who join in the“political promotion tournament”have made impacts on economic performance into the analysis of process of decentralization reform, and try to explain the reasons why, since the reform and openingup, the competition among the local government officials has caused the regional disparities in fiscal decentralization, financial development, industrialization and economic growth while it has propped up Chinas high rate of economic growth in aggregate amount. In addition, we discuss the policy implication that is contained in our empirical findings.

RETHINKING WHY THE VALUEADDED RATIO OF CHINESE
MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY DECLINES ——An Analysis Based on the Data from WIOD

YU Chun-Hai-1, CHANG Hai-Long-2

2015, 35(2):  20-30. 

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The valueadded ratio (VAR) of Chinese manufacturing industry is lower and decreasing faster than the other major economies in the world. This paper analyzes the influence of technology, structure, distribution and intraproduct specialization on VAR. Based on logical and empirical analysis, we come to two results. Firstly, the development of intraproduct specialization inevitably leads to the decrease of VAR. Secondly, the extension to China of international intraproduct specialization mainly concentrates in assembly activities. It is the main reason why the VAR of Chinese manufacturing industry is lower and declining faster than the other economies in the world.

DO CHINESE TRADE UNIONS HAVE WAGE PREMIUM ——Based on BlinderOaxaca Regression Decomposition of the Sample Selection Bias Controlled

YI Ding-Hong-1, YUAN Qing-Chuan-2

2015, 35(2):  31-39. 

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This paper attempts to analyze the wage premium of Chinese trade union by adopting the method of extraction of instrumental variable, based on China social comprehensive survey data in 2008. The results show that hourly wage difference between union members and nonunion members is mainly caused by the endowment effect. The coefficient effect and interaction effect is not significant. In terms of membership tendency there have been obvious group characteristics. Final conclusion is that unions reduce the wage gap between the union and nonunion members by affecting resources endowment and working characteristics of union workers. This paper put forward two suggestions to strengthen the unions effect.

STUDY ON EFFECTS OF INNOVATION POLICY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE
OF INNOVATION SYSTEM
——Based on the Analysis of Provincial Panel Data in China

JIANG Xuan, LIU Huang, LI Xiu-Ting

2015, 35(2):  40-50. 

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Drawing lessons from the research thinking of Wieczorek and Hekkert, this paper constructs the function route of innovation policy. Based on the innovation policy system framework and superefficiency DEA and panel data model, this paper studies the impact of innovation policies on the performance of national innovation system, and obtains the following important findings. The policy of government S&T appropriation, government procurement and intellectual property protection are positively correlated with the performance of Chinas innovation system. There is no significant correlation between the policy of R&D tax incentives, financial support and infrastructure construction and the performance of Chinas innovation system. Education investment policy and open policy are negatively correlated with the performance of Chinas innovation system. This paper gives some related policy recommendations.

THE THRESHOLD EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION, INDUSTRIAL
STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

XIE Lan-Yun

2015, 35(2):  51-59. 

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This paper uses the threshold regression method by Hansen (2000) to measure the threshold effects of R&D investment and economic growth from the perspective of R&D intensity and industrial structure between 1978 and 2012. This analysis shows there are regimeswitching. With the R&D intensity increasing, the effect of R&D investment on economic growth is stronger and stronger. With the proportion of industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from nonsignificant to significant. However, with the proportion of the third industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from significant to nonsignificant.

THE LINKAGE METHODOLOGY BETWEEN CGE MODEL AND MICRO
MODELS
——An Literature Review within an Integrated Analysis Framework

WANG Xin-Xin-1, MI Song-2, HUA Liang-Qiao-3

2015, 35(2):  60-69. 

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Macroeconomics and microeconomics were defined as two different research areas which have been gradual merged together during the past several years. It is common for explaining the macroeconomics from the microindividuals behavior. The study on the microeconomic impact in the context of macro environment transition is another typical case in these areas. Related researches on the macromicro linkage are beginning to flourish in the 21st century. This paper tries to analyze the relevant methodologies on the linkage between macromicro models and attempts to explain the detail of such methods with an example.

THE MEASURE OF THE OPTIMAL DEBT RATIO OF CHINA BASED ON
THE FULL DIAMETER GOVERNMENT DEBT RATIOS DATA

WANG Li-Yong, QI Xin, ZHAO Yang

2015, 35(2):  70-79. 

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EXTENDING THE RETIREMENT AGE OR INCREASING THE PAYMENT
BASE: THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PLANS

ZHANG Qin-1, GUO Yan-1, LI Mei-Yu-2

2015, 35(2):  80-88. 

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This paper made the basic income and expense model of pension from the angle of gross with expecting data of Chinese population, and then measured the payments balance and the effects of estimating policy under the policies of “extending the retirement age” and “increasing payment base” of the following 30 years from 2010. The results of study showed that “extending the retirement age” made a great function to relieve the pressure of pension payment but with negative externality such as adding employment pressure and so on. The “increasing payment base” also could relieve the puzzle of pension payment without negative externality but there was such defect as slow implement time or new public financial pressure.

AN ANALYSIS ON THE DETERMINANTS OF EXPECTATION RETIREMENT
AGE ——Evidence from CHARLS Data

LI Qin-1, PENG Hao-Ran-2

2015, 35(2):  89-100. 

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Based on the 2011 CHARLS data, this paper analyzes the effect of individual features, spouse and family characteristics on the willing of delaying retirement and ceaseless work of the people aged 45~60 using the multinomial logit model. The results show that women, people with senior technical posts and labor with rural hukou tend to delay retirement. People working in the enterprises and with low education levels and rural hukou tend to work ceaselessly. The gender difference analysis shows that the higher the education level the later husbands expect to retire, the higher the education level the earlier wives tend to retire. The relationship between husbands expected retirement age and wives education level is not a simple linear form, but a Ushaped curve relationship. But this relationship is not existed between wives expected retirement age and husbands education level. This paper provides some suggestions about retirement policies.

TRADE OPENNESS, HUMAN CAPITAL AND THE SPATIAL EFFECT OF
REGIONAL INCOME
——Based on Empirical Data of Chinese Prefecture Level Regions

YAO Peng, SUN Jiu-Wen

2015, 35(2):  101-112. 

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This paper employs a spatial Durbin growth model to estimate the impact of trade openness on regional per capita income in China using a data set of 326 Chinese prefecture level regions over the period 2010—2012. We calculate the direct, indirect and cumulative impact on per capita income of trade openness and human capital in these regions. Results indicate that greater trade openness in a region promotes economic development locally, and exerting positive influence on per capita income of the neighboring regions. Our findings also show that human capital has a positivedirect and indirectimpact on the economic development of Chinese prefecture level regions.