Economic Theory and Business Management ›› 2015, Vol. 35 ›› Issue (2): 51-59.
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XIE Lan-Yun
Online:
Published:
谢兰云
作者简介:
基金资助:
本文受到国家社科基金项目(12BJY013)和教育部人文社科基金规划项目(12YJA790151)、国家自然科学基金面上项目(71171035)资助.
Abstract: This paper uses the threshold regression method by Hansen (2000) to measure the threshold effects of R&D investment and economic growth from the perspective of R&D intensity and industrial structure between 1978 and 2012. This analysis shows there are regimeswitching. With the R&D intensity increasing, the effect of R&D investment on economic growth is stronger and stronger. With the proportion of industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from nonsignificant to significant. However, with the proportion of the third industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from significant to nonsignificant.
Key words: innovation , R&D , industrial structure , economic growth , threshold effect
摘要: 本文利用汉森(Hansen)门槛回归分析的方法,从R&D强度、产业结构两个角度研究了1978—2012年我国R&D投入增长与经济增长之间的阶段性变化特点。实证结果显示,当R&D强度越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用在不断加强;当工业占GDP比重越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用由不显著转变为显著为正;但当第三产业占GDP比重越过门槛后,R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用却由显著为正转变为不显著。
关键词: 创新 , R&, D , 产业结构 , 经济增长 , 门槛效应
XIE Lan-Yun. THE THRESHOLD EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION, INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2015, 35(2): 51-59.
谢兰云. 创新、产业结构与经济增长的 门槛效应分析*[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2015, 35(2): 51-59.
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http://jjll.ruc.edu.cn/EN/Y2015/V35/I2/51