Table of Content

16 January 2010, Volume 30 Issue 1

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CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC SITUATION AND POLICIES:2009—2010

Institute of Economic Research, Renmin University of China

2010, (1):  5-11. 

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Based on the theoretical models of China's economic growth and price formation and the CMAFM econometric model, this paper analyzes and predicts China's economic recovery with the support of pro-active fiscal policy and moderately ease monetary policy from 2009 to 2010. It is argued that China's demand management should continue its expansionary policy orientation to achieve the transition of China's economic cycle form depression to prosperity, and evolve its policy architecture centered on domestic investment enhancing to accommodate China's economic development mode of high saving-large investment-rapid growth.

THINKING ABOUT THE GLOBAL COOPERATION FRAMEWORK RESPONGDING TO THE CHALLENGES OF CLIMATE CHANGE——Written on the Occasion of the Opening of the Copenhagen Meeting

HUANG Wei-ping, SONG Xiao-heng

2010, (1):  12-18. 

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In the past century, global average temperature has rose by 0.74 degrees Celsius, leading to accelerated sea level rise in the late 20th century. Scientists have put forward convincing evidences, showing that emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases from transportation, industry and agriculture have hindered heat release in the atmosphere, causing climate change, bringing droughts, floods, rising sea levels and other potential damages. In view of this, it is important and urgent to resolve this issue through the establishment of a framework for global cooperation. To be fair and impartial, the design of the framework should not only take into account the actual situation in various countries and their comparative advantages, but also the convenience of the framework to reduce the difficulty of implementation and to achieve sustainable development.

THE POTENTIAL CAPITAL LOSS OF CHINA'S FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE

ZHANG Ming

2010, (1):  19-23. 

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This paper analyzes the capital loss faced by China's huge foreign exchange reserve as a result of RMB appreciation. On the one hand, the real and potential capital losses from currency mismatch on PBOC's balance sheet are calculated. On the other hand, the international purchasing powers of Chinese foreign exchange reserve measured by one basket of currencies or one basket of commodities are estimated. Main conclusions are listed: First, the capital loss on PBOC's balance sheet is significant. PBOC's capital loss caused by exchange rate fluctuation in 2007 reached RMB 346 billion, which is over 15 times of PBOC's capital. Second, the volatility of international purchasing power of China's foreign exchange reserve is clearly larger than that of market value, especially that measured by oil price. To mitigate the potential capital loss, Chinese government should speed up the domestic structural reforms, promote portfolio diversification and increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate mechanism.

INFLUENCING FACTORS OF INVESTMENT-CONSUMPTION STRUCTURE AND DESIRABLE INVESTMENT-CONSUMPTION INTERVAL——Empirical Study Based on Cross-Country Data

CAI Yue-zhou, WANG Yu-xia

2010, (1):  24-30. 

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Factors of investment-consumption structure are analyzed in this paper with the desirable investment-consumption structure for China evaluated as well. Based on literature review, international comparison is made between these factors, with panel data analysis and co-integration analysis using Chinese data as verification. It comes out that:(1) Economic development stages, urbanization level, degree of dependence on foreign trade, region and cultural tradition and economic regime all have significant impacts;(2) Taking all these into account, the desirable intervals for investment and consumption ratio should be 40~45% and 55~60% respectively;(3) China's investment-consumption structure is still in distortion. The implementation of economic stimulus actions should put more attention to the structure optimization.

STRUCTURAL CHANGES AND IMPLICATIONS ABOUT CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC VOLATILITY

ZHANG Cheng-si

2010, (1):  31-37. 

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This paper investigates the nature of volatility in key macroeconomic variables in China over the past three decades. We apply stochastic volatility model to discrete time series analysis, and identify the accurate time point of the structural change of volatility feature in different economic index. Empirical results suggest a significant structural change in the volatility of the key macroeconomic variables in the mid 1990s. This change is mainly attributed to systematic improvements in China's macroeconomic policies.

A CRITIQUE ON ECONOMIC MODELING:CONCLUSIONS LOGICALLY IMPLIED IN THE BASIC ASSUMPTIONS——A View on the Problems in the Process of Economic Modeling from the Truth that Different Results Are Induced by the Same Utility Function

ZHANG Yan

2010, (1):  38-44. 

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Through the study on the different results in the three classical models introduced in the book Advanced Macroeconomics——infinite horizon Ramsey Model, Overlapping Generation Diamond Model and Real Business Cycle Model_——induced from the same utility function, this paper reveals that the key of result differences lie in the delicate variations of the basic assumptions, which shows that the essentiality of economic modeling is that the conclusions are logically implied in the basic assumptions. In other words, mathematical deduction is only a routine, or a delicate embellishment. The assumptions essentially decide the conclusions.

MATHEMATICAL REASONING METHODS AND THE INVENTED NATURE OF MODERN ECONOMICS

LI Wei-hua

2010, (1):  45-51. 

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This paper is the study in the research methods in modern economics and the problems in theoretical connotation .By analyzing the assumptions of modern economics and its thinking process and comparing three kinds of scientific research methods with the research methods of modern economics, we draw the conclusion that modern economics is only a fabricated theory without factual bases. Mathematical reasoning is only a tool used to fabricate the theory; both the illusion of the "objectivity" in the economic society and the "scientific nature" of the economics, along with the competition for existence in economics, force the modern economics into the fantasy realm far away from the reality. The right research methods of economics should be the way of observing the real experimental results in this natural laboratory, the economic and social reality.

THE RESEARCH OF PRICING METHOD OF SECURITIES LOAN RATES BASING ON THE OPTIONS THEORY

XU Jia-gen, WANG Hui, SONG Zhi-wen

2010, (1):  52-57. 

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Securities lending and securities financing transaction is a trading system in mature securities markets.Similar to financing, services provided by the securities lending is also a kind of lending services.What the difference is the target, the securities lending target is securities but not funds. Since it is a service provided by brokerages,charges should be concerned which is the securities lending rate. So how to calculate the securities lending rates? This paper draws on the experience of Taiwan, and calculate the practical securities lending rates in the mainland of China.

THE PATH CHOICE OF THE TRANSITION TO INNOVATIVE COUNTRY——The analysis of generic technology in the framework of hierarchy structure

ZHOU Mi, DENG Xiang-rong

2010, (1):  62-67. 

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There are two roads leading to an innovation-oriented country. The one is promotion of bottom-up technological innovation and the other is technological innovation through generic technology by the top-down innovation. The choice of the road is an important topic of the systematic upgrading of industrial base. The cooperation game analysis presents that forming the top-down innovation through R&D difficulty of breaking generic technologies is a solution to the innovation state transition path.

INDIVIDUAL ENDOWMENTS, INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENTS AND THE ENTREPRENEURIAL DECISION:AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

YANG Qi-jing, WANG Yu-feng

2010, (1):  68-73. 

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Our empirical study shows there are significant positive relationships between the entrepreneurial decision of the returned migrants and their individual endowments such as the entrepreneurial human capital, disposable wealth and education. We also find that the government quality might also have great impact on their entrepreneurial preference. In addition, although all the above factors have significant influence on their self-employment preference, the effects are relative small on the scaled-entrepreneurial marginal preference. All the above results imply that the government should reduce corruption and improve efficiency in order to induce entrepreneurship, and the government should mainly support self-employment but not scaled-entrepreneurship.

ON THE THEORETICAL LIMITATION, LOGIC JUMPING-OFF POINT AND MICRO-FOUNDATION OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICAL ECONOMICS

Bao Jian-yun

2010, (1):  74-80. 

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Based on the related literature of international political economics(IPE), this paper analyses the theoretical limitation, logic jumping-off point and micro-foundation of contemporary IPE. The IPE spreads the research fields of traditional theory on international relations and political economics.However, there are many theoretical limitations and the absence on theoretical assumptions and strong micro-foundation stop the further development of this research field. Based on action choice sets, which are recognizant and appraisable, the assumptions on international actors are the logic jumping-off point and micro-foundation of theory research of IPE. The IPE focuses on the models and mechanism of interdependence among different countries, the models and mechanism of inner transform of international externalities and international public governance.