CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC SITUATION AND POLICIES:2009—2010

Abstract

Abstract: Based on the theoretical models of China's economic growth and price formation and the CMAFM econometric model, this paper analyzes and predicts China's economic recovery with the support of pro-active fiscal policy and moderately ease monetary policy from 2009 to 2010. It is argued that China's demand management should continue its expansionary policy orientation to achieve the transition of China's economic cycle form depression to prosperity, and evolve its policy architecture centered on domestic investment enhancing to accommodate China's economic development mode of high saving-large investment-rapid growth.

Key words: China’s economy, growth, fluctuation and inflation, demand management

摘要： 本文依据中国经济增长与价格形成理论模型以及CMAFM计量模型,分析与预测2009—2010年间中国经济在积极财政政策和适度宽松货币政策支持下的复苏过程。本文认为,中国需求管理应该继续采取扩张性政策取向,完成中国经济景气从萧条到繁荣的周期形态转换,并且与中国经济发展的高储蓄—高投资—高增长模式相适应,形成以促进国内投资需求为轴心的政策架构。

关键词: 中国经济, 增长、波动与通货膨胀, 需求管理

CLC Number:

F123.16

Institute of Economic Research, Renmin University of China. CHINA'S MACROECONOMIC SITUATION AND POLICIES:2009—2010[J]. Economic Theory and Business Management, 2010, (1): 5-11.

中国人民大学经济研究所. 中国宏观经济形势与政策:2009—2010年[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2010, (1): 5-11.

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