Abstract:  Through a DSGE model, this paper finds that the low price of industrial land policy does not necessarily increase industrial growth. In areas heavily dependent on land mortgage loan, low land price makes the value of mortgage decline and raises the credit cost, leading to a weak industrial growth. Furthermore, through the analysis of panel data of 101 cities from 2000 to 2015, we find that low land price can indeed promote industrial development in the eastern region, but cannot significantly increase industrial production in the central and the western regions. Considering the differences in dependence on land mortgage loans between the eastern and the central/western regions, we believe that only when a region is independent of land mortgage loan, the low land price can significantly promote industrial growth.

Key words: industrial land, land mortgage loan, industrial growth

摘要： 本文通过构建一个DSGE模型发现，低价出让工业用地并不一定会显著增加工业产值。特别是对于严重依赖土地抵押贷款的地区，低地价使得抵押物价值下降，从而抬高了企业贷款成本，导致工业增长乏力。进一步地，本文对101个城市2000—2015年的面板数据进行了分析，发现低地价确实能够促进东部地区的工业增长，却对中西部地区的工业产值无明显的增进作用。考虑到东部、中西部对土地抵押贷款依赖度的差异，本文认为只有当某地区不依赖土地抵押贷款时，低地价才能显著地促进工业增长。

关键词: 工业用地, 土地抵押贷款, 工业增长