Abstract: 2021 is the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. It is a key year for Chinas economy to continue to recover from the COVID19 shock under the strong leadership of the party and take the lead in starting the normalization process in the world. As the first year of the 14th Fiveyear Plan, the intersection of the two Centennial goals and the year of strategic transformation, it is of great strategic significance for China's macroeconomy to realize comprehensive normalization in 2021. This paper focuses on the analysis of the core characteristics of the normalization process of China's economy, the internal and external pressures as well as policy supports. According to the qualitative judgment and setting a series of parameters, this paper forecasts the core indicators of China's macroeconomy in 2021 by using the CMAFM model, the analysis and prediction model of China's macroeconomy constructed by Renmin University of China. Finally, based on qualitative judgment and numerical prediction, this paper puts forward a series of policy recommendations.

Key words: China's economy, normalization, economic recovery, growth forecast, the 14th Fiveyear Plan

摘要： 2021年是中国共产党建党一百周年，是在党的坚强领导下中国经济持续复苏并在全球范围内率先开启常态化进程的关键一年。作为十四五规划的开局之年、两个百年目标交汇与战略转换之年，2021年中国宏观经济实现全面常态化具有十分重要的战略意义。本文重点分析了中国经济开启常态化进程的核心特征表现、面临的内外部压力以及政策性支撑力量。通过定性判断与设定系列参数，本文利用中国人民大学中国宏观经济分析与预测模型（CMAFM模型）对2021年中国宏观经济核心指标进行了预测。最后，基于定性判断和数值预测，本文提出了系列政策建议。

关键词: 中国经济, 常态化, 经济复苏, 增长预测, 十四五