Table of Content

16 August 2021, Volume 41 Issue 8

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CHINA'S MACRO ECONOMY, THE FIRST IN THE WORLD TO START THE NORMALIZATION PROCESS IN THE CENTENARY OF THE FOUNDING OF THE COMMUNIST PARTY OF CHINA

RUC Research Group of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast

2021, 41(8):  4-28. 

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2021 is the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China. It is a key year for Chinas economy to continue to recover from the COVID19 shock under the strong leadership of the party and take the lead in starting the normalization process in the world. As the first year of the 14th Fiveyear Plan, the intersection of the two Centennial goals and the year of strategic transformation, it is of great strategic significance for China's macroeconomy to realize comprehensive normalization in 2021. This paper focuses on the analysis of the core characteristics of the normalization process of China's economy, the internal and external pressures as well as policy supports. According to the qualitative judgment and setting a series of parameters, this paper forecasts the core indicators of China's macroeconomy in 2021 by using the CMAFM model, the analysis and prediction model of China's macroeconomy constructed by Renmin University of China. Finally, based on qualitative judgment and numerical prediction, this paper puts forward a series of policy recommendations.

FINANCIALIZATION OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND CHINA'S EXPERIENCE OF RESISTANCE

XIE Fusheng, KUANG Xiaolu, LI Zhi

2021, 41(8):  29-42. 

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This paper attempts to analyze the process of China's economy from resisting financialization to the emergence of financialization within the framework of the interaction of development modes and external economic dependence. This paper believes that the financialization and frequent debt financial crises of developing countries originate from the deviation of financial expansion and productive accumulation under the interaction of domestic development modes and external economic dependence. In terms of China, the industrializationled development mode formed under the guidance of the government's effective industrial policies and gradual financial policies can continuously resolve contradictions in economic development. At the same time, a complete industrial system and a prudent financial opening policy alleviate Chinas dependence on the world economic system, which made it possible for China to resist financialization and crises. However, after the 2008 global financial crisis, China's development mode has been facing new contradictions and its dependence on the external economy has been gradually increasing. The trend of financialization has appeared, which will bring huge challenges to the stability of China's economy and financial system. The Chinese government has been aware of the risks of financialization and has introduced a series of policies in recent years to guide money flow into real sectors and has made some achievements. However, the risks of financialization have not yet been eradicated, and it is necessary that the Chinese government formulates effective policies to guide the coordinated development of finance and the real economy.

CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION AND THE TRANSMISSION OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL SHOCKS——Analysis Based on Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium

LUO Rong, LU Wenli

2021, 41(8):  43-59. 

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This paper establishes a small open economy model that includes trade and nontrade sectors in the framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium We systematically study and compare the different effects and transmission mechanisms of China's economy with foreign financial shocks and export demand shocks under the circumstances of capital control and capital account liberalization, and test the effectiveness of different monetary policy rules in response to international shocks in the context of capital account liberalization We find that the economy fluctuations of countries with capital account liberalization after suffering foreign shocks are much greater than that of capital controls The key difference between capital control and capital account liberalization to foreign financial shock transmission mechanisms lies in the interaction between the trade sector and the nontrade sector, specifically in labor transfer After the liberalization of the capital account, both monetary quantity rules and mixed rules can effectively smooth economic fluctuations in the face of different forms of international shocks


MULTIPLE LARGE SHAREHOLDERS AND ACCOUNTING CONSERVATISM

XU JingChang, FENG Jin, QIAO Fei, Zhu Bing

2021, 41(8):  60-77. 

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This paper studies the governance effect of multiple large shareholders from the perspective of accounting conservatism. Taking Chinese Ashare listed companies from 2007 to 2018 as samples, this paper demonstrates the promoting effect of multiple large shareholders on accounting conservatism, and finds out that the reduction of the selfish behavior of controlling shareholders is the main way for multiple large shareholders to influence accounting conservatism. Further studies find that both the number and the shareholding ratio of noncontrolling large shareholders improve accounting conservatism; under weak governance environment, the positive impact of multiple large shareholders on accounting conservatism is more significant. By analyzing the influence of multiple large shareholders on accounting conservatism, this paper provides enlightenment for optimizing corporate governance and improving corporate information environment.

A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS MECHANISM AND HETEROGENEITY OF INTERNET FINANCE ON COMMERCIAL BANKS' PERFORMANCE

LIU Mengfei, WANG Qi

2021, 41(8):  78-95. 

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Firstly, this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of internet finance on traditional commercial banks from the perspectives of bank assets, liabilities and payment and settlement. Then, based on the data of 79 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2018, a variety of estimation methods are used to conduct empirical analysis. The results show that internet finance has obvious negative impact on the performance of commercial banks in China. The financial development level and other factors also produce important impacts from different aspects. The test results of impact mechanism confirm that the development of internet finance has brought significant negative impact on banks' net interest income and noninterest income, which further influences bank's performance. The heterogeneity tests show that the impact of internet finance on agricultural commercial banks' and city commercial banks' performance is greater than that on stateowned large and mediumsized banks. Banks located in the eastern regions, carrying out crossregional operations and with higher innovative abilities can better respond to the impact of internet finance. In the new financial ecology, the deepening integration of information technology, and accelerating transformation and innovation of Fintech are the important strategic approaches of further sustainable development for traditional commercial banks.

MEASUREMENT AND COMPARISON OF FOREIGN TRADE COMPETITIVENESS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT

WANG HoushuangSHENG XinyuZHAO Lunan

2021, 41(8):  96-112. 

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This paper applies measurement method of national competitiveness in foreign trade to the measurement of foreign trade competitiveness at the provincial level based on the existing research and characteristics of provinces' participating in international trade. The results show that the export foreign trade competitiveness, import foreign trade competitiveness, and the total foreign trade competitiveness of downstream region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt are higher than middle and upper reaches, but the fluctuation of downstream region's competitiveness is also obvious. Further structural decomposition results show that the developments of Shanghai's foreign trade competitiveness and Chongqing's foreign trade competitiveness are determined by the contribution of comprehensive price level, while other provinces' competitiveness of export or import trade changes with trade shares. Based on the perspective of product categories, further research shows that all categories of products of downstream region in the Yangtze River Economic Belt keeps relatively high competitiveness in export and import or general trade, while half categories of products of middle reaches keeps relatively high level, and only a few types of products of upper reaches reach the high level.