Abstract: Based on the perspective of interest rate liberalization, this paper uses MSAR (Markov regimeswitching autoregressive model) to study the nonlinear changes of interest rate determination channels in China since the interest rate liberalization began (19962017). This paper uses the econometric model to identify two regimes of interest rate determination channels in China: “fiscal dominant” (19962005) and “monetary dominant” (20062017) regimes. The switching time of China's interest rate determination channels coincides with the critical timing of interest rate liberalization reform process, showing that China's interest rate liberalization reform has made remarkable achievement, and the interest rate determination has changed from fiscal dominant to monetary dominant regime, laying a good foundation for further interest rate liberalization.

Key words:  , interest rate liberalization, fiscal expenditure, money supply

摘要： 本文基于利率市场化的角度，使用马尔科夫体制转换自回归模型（MSAR）研究我国利率市场化改革以来（1996—2017年）利率水平决定机制的非线性变化。通过计量模型识别出我国利率水平决定的两个体制，即“财政主导”（1996—2005年）和“货币主导”（2006—2017年）。我国利率决定机制改变的时间轨迹与利率市场化改革进程的关键时间节点相吻合。这表明我国的利率市场化改革取得了显著成效，利率调控方式由财政主导转向货币主导，为进一步的利率市场化打下了良好的基础。

关键词: 利率市场化, 财政支出, 货币供应量