Abstract: This paper improves the bilateral stochastic frontier model by including spatial effects to estimate the bilateral impact of manufacturing agglomeration on green economic efficiency. Based on the panel data of prefecturelevel and above cities in China from 2006 to 2016, the agglomeration effect, congestion effect and the combined net effect of manufacturing agglomeration on green economic efficiency are estimated. The research results show that: (1) The agglomeration effect of China's manufacturing agglomeration on green economy efficiency is 19.51%, the congestion effect is 8.96%, and the net effect is 10.55%, that is, manufacturing agglomeration is conducive to the improvement of green economy efficiency. (2) The panel threshold model analysis finds that in the highlevel stage, with the increase in manufacturing agglomeration and specialization, the marginal effect of the net effect on green economy efficiency changes in a Ushape, and as the spatial level of manufacturing agglomeration increases, the marginal effect of the net effect on green economy efficiency shows an increasing trend. (3) The analysis of heterogeneous combination shows that, in different stages of economic development, changes in manufacturing agglomeration specialization levels and spatial hierarchies have an increasing effect on the bilateral green economy efficiency of different sample cities. The impacts are not the same, indicating that cities in China have sizable heterogeneity and challenges in choosing the route of manufacturing agglomeration.

Key words: industrial agglomeration, green economy efficiency, bilateral stochastic frontier model, threshold model

摘要： 本文纳入空间效应对双边随机前沿模型进行改进，用于估算制造业集聚对绿色经济效率的双边影响，并基于2006—2016年中国地级及以上城市面板数据对制造业集聚的聚集效应、拥挤效应以及两者共同作用的净效应进行估计，研究结果显示：（1）中国制造业集聚对绿色经济效率的聚集效应为1951%，拥挤效应为896%，净效应为1055%，即制造业集聚有利于绿色经济效率的改进；（2）面板门槛模型分析发现，在高发展水平阶段，随着制造业集聚专业化水平的提升，净效应对绿色经济效率的边际效应呈U型变化，而随着制造业集聚的空间等级水平的提升，净效应对绿色经济效率的边际效应呈递增趋势；（3）异质性组合分析表明，经济发展不同水平阶段下，制造业集聚专业化水平和空间等级水平的变化对绿色经济效率的双边影响不尽相同，表明中国城市在制造业集聚的路径选择上存在较大的异质性和挑战性。

关键词: 产业集聚, 绿色经济效率, 双边随机前沿模型, 门槛模型