Abstract: The United States(U.S.) direct investment in China has been growing up rapidly and the size of Sino-US trade has been continually expanding since 1990s.In the meantime,the imbalance of trade between the two countries has been increased year by year,and bilateral trade imbalance aggravates trade friction.This paper first provides the cause of Sino-US trade imbalance through analyzing various effect of the US direct investment in China.Furthermore,it concludes from empirical analysis that the relationship between U.S.direct investment in China and the Sino-US trade surplus is long-term cointegration,which means that the decisive factor of Sino-US trade surplus is U.S.direct investment in China.Finally,this paper makes related suggestions to alleviate the trade imbalance.

Key words: U.S.direct investment in China, Sino-US trade imbalance, Granger causality test

摘要： 20世纪90年代以来,美国在华直接投资额呈迅速上升趋势,中美贸易规模也不断扩大,与此同时,两国的贸易差额也逐年增大,双边贸易的不平衡加剧了贸易摩擦。本文首先从美国在华投资对中美贸易差额所产生的各种效应阐述了中美贸易失衡的原因,然后通过实证分析得出美国在华直接投资与中美贸易顺差之间存在长期协整关系的结论,即美国在华直接投资是导致中美贸易顺差的决定性因素。最后提出缓解中美贸易不平衡的相关对策建议。

关键词: 美国对华直接投资, 中美贸易不平衡, 格兰杰因果检验