经济理论与经济管理 ›› 2023, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (10): 43-56.

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双边货币互换助推跨境贸易人民币结算

  

  1. 1  ,中央财经大学金融学院;   2  北京航空航天大学经管学院
  • 出版日期:2023-10-16 发布日期:2023-11-27
  • 基金资助:
    本文得到国家社会科学基金重大项目“负利率时代金融系统性风险的识别和防范研究”(20&ZD101)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“资本账户开放进程中的汇率波动效应:对经济增长的影响机制和风险防范”(72273164)、国家社会科学基金重点项目“稳慎推进人民币国际化的策略和路径”(21AZD066)、中央财经大学第六批青年科研创新团队的资助。

THE BILATERAL CURRENCY SWAP AGREEMENT BENEFITS RMB CROSSBORDER TRADE SETTLEMENT

  1. 1.School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics;
    2.School of Economics and Management,Beihang University
  • Online:2023-10-16 Published:2023-11-27

摘要: 基于2012—2019年省际层面的跨境贸易人民币结算数据样本,本文研究了双边本币互换协议对人民币发挥贸易结算货币职能的影响及其作用机制。基于DID方法的实证分析表明,双边货币互换对跨境贸易人民币结算的促进作用呈现非对称性,即对出口贸易本币结算影响显著,而对进口贸易本币结算的影响并不显著。构建人民币互换网络有助于缓解跨境贸易本币结算的“跛足化”现象。机制分析表明,“外币融资可获得性”是双边货币互换促进跨境贸易人民币结算的重要渠道。异质性分析表明,对于贸易开放度更高的省份、与中国贸易联系密切以及资本账户开放程度高于中国的贸易伙伴,人民币互换网络对贸易领域人民币国际化水平的促进作用更强。本文的研究为人民银行开展货币金融合作、强化人民币的贸易媒介职能以有序推动人民币国际化提供了重要的经验证据与政策启示。

关键词: 双边货币互换, 跨境贸易人民币结算, 人民币国际化, 非对称性

Abstract: Based on the RMB settlement data of goods trade at the provincial level from 2012 to 2019,this paper studies the influence and mechanism of bilateral currency swap agreements on the RMB crossborder trade settlement Empirical analysis based on DID method shows that,bilateral currency swap agreement helps to improve RMB crossborder trade settlement,and the promoting effect is asymmetrical,which means that bilateral currency swap has significant effect on export,but has no significant effect on import RMB swap network helps to alleviate the “lameness” of RMB crossborder trade settlement Mechanism analysis shows that “foreign currency financing availability” is an important channel Heterogeneity analysis shows that for provinces with higher trade openness and partner countries with closer trade links with China and higher capital account openness than China,RMB swap networks have much stronger promoting effect on the RMB internationalization in the trade settlement field This study provides important empirical evidence and policy enlightenment for the People's Bank of China to carry out monetary and financial cooperation,strengthen the function of RMB as trade medium and orderly promote RMB internationalization

Key words: bilateral currency swap, RMB crossborder trade settlement, RMB internationalization, asymmetry