关键词: 税收政策, 经济增长, 外生性税负变化量

Abstract: Drawing on Romer and Romer（2010），this paper uses the narrative record to measure exogenous tax change and uses the SVAR model to analyze its economic effects We find that the exogenous tax policy event which increases the proportion of tax revenue on GDP by 1 percentage point will significantly reduce real GDP by 384%，indicating that tax reduction will expand output and promote growth The same exogenous tax policy event will significantly reduce the fixed asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods by 60% and 39% respectively After adding in the broad money supply，the results show that Chinas monetary authorities will adopt a tight monetary policy when tax policy is tightened，forming a situation in which monetary and fiscal policies are mutually compatible The conclusions of this paper will provide reference and suggestions for the adjustment and improvement of Chinas tax system

Key words: tax policy, economic growth, exogenous tax changes