关键词: 债务限额制度, 税收自主权, 隐性债务风险, 官员集体决策, 地方政府  ,

Abstract: The influence of debt limits on implicit debts risk is a weak link in current studies Based on the panel data of 30 provincial units from 2010 to 2018 and using the generalized DID model，an empirical study is conducted to study the effects of debt limits and tax autonomy on the local government implicit debts risk It is found that the debt limits do not restrain the growth of implicit debts，and the reduction of debt limits space will accelerate the expansion of implicit debts risk，especially for the middle and western regions Moreover，increasing tax autonomy will reduce the adverse effects of the debt limits An analysis of regional heterogeneity measured by the collective decisionmaking system of local officials finds that the negative impact of the debt limits on local implicit debts risk is less in regions with a high proportion of committee members from the central government Based on dividing the debt limits，further analyses reveal that issuing replacement bonds and new bonds have different effects on implicit debts risk The conclusions suggest that to manage local implicit debts risk requires the combination of the optimization of debt limits，official behavior and fiscal and tax system reform Only by treating both the symptoms and root causes can we truly achieve the goal of resolving the risk of implicit debts

Key words: debt limits, tax autonomy, implicit debts risk, collective decisionmaking of officials, local government