关键词: 均衡性转移支付, 激励效应, 地方政府收入行为, 空间杜宾模型

Abstract: Based on countylevel panel statistics, using dynamic variable space tools and Spatial Durbin Model, this paper evaluates the incentive effect of equilibrium transfer payment from the perspective of local governments' income behavior. The results show that the equilibrium transfer payment has two effects on local governments' income behavior. From the direct effect, it alleviates the fiscal pressure of local governments and does not cause direct tax distortion on local governments. However, it can be seen from the indirect effect that the equilibrium transfer payment will lead to distorted tax competition among regions. Its tax base effect and tax rate effect offset each other, its impact on local governments' tax collecting efforts is not significant, and its impact on local governments' fiscal revenue behavior is neutral and not positive in terms of incentive effect.

Key words: equilibrium transfer payments, incentive effect, local government income behavior, Spatial Durbin Model