关键词: 金融条件指数 , TVPVAR模型 , 时变权重 , 信贷可得性

Abstract: In this paper, we categorize different methods to construct the financial condition index and analysis the research status of constructing Chinas financial condition indexDue to the variation of financial mechanism in China after the crisis, there are some limitations in the conventional construction methodsWe improve the construction methods in two ways:timevarying weights and the introduction of nonfinancial variablesIn the empirical part, we construct a fixedweight FCI as the control, then we use TVPVAR model to construct a FCI for the Post Crisis EraAt last, we test the ability of the timevarying weight FCI to explain and predict inflationThe results suggest that the timevarying weight FCI is better than fixedweight ones in reflecting Chinas financial statusThe introduction of creditavailability optimizes the FCIFCI constructed in this paper goes ahead of inflation for about 11 months, and has a strong ability to explain and predict the inflationIt is of great practical significance to construct a reasonable FCI to improve the effectiveness and predictability of the monetary policy after the crisis, and to achieve the economic and financial stability

Key words: financial condition index , TVPVAR , timevarying weight , creditavailability